As I suggested in When should Greece default dated May 25, I don't think that the second bail-out for Greece merely amounts to throwing good money after bad money. While Greece will likely need to restructure its debts in a few years' time, a default now would lead to a devastating outcome for the Eurozone overall given the state of the Eurozone banking system and especially given the risk of contagion to the large sovereign debt markets of Spain and Italy. Even though the way forward will remain bumpy for the peripheral Eurozone sovereigns and some important hurdles remain, I think that the peripheral woes might calm down somewhat during the next few weeks and even months. For one, as mentioned a devastating near-term default scenario has become less likely. Additionally, as reports suggests, a sensible roll-over plan for maturing Greek debts is being negotiated between the banks and the various Eurozone states. This roll-over plan should help Greece to partially refinance maturing bonds and the banks to partially reduce their Greek exposure without taking an accounting loss. Even though it might be deemed a selective default by some rating agencies, this solution should help limit the negative spill-over to the other peripheral debt markets.
10y Spain and Italian bond yields propelled higher by Greek default prospects
Overall, therefore, the US economy should increasingly show signs of recovery as summer progresses.
CITI US Economic surprise index has stabilised and should turn up again
Such an environment - increasing risk appetite, improving growth backdrop and higher ECB repo rates - does not bode well for USTs and Bunds. Furthermore, the technical market situation has also worsened over the past few days. The 10y Treasury future broke and closed below its upward trend which was in place since early April. Today also the Bund future and 10y Bund yields followed. The chart below shows the 10y Bund yield. As can be seen, the downward trend has been tested four times since early April. Today it broke above which would trigger a technical sell signal if confirmed on a closing basis.
10y Bund yields break above their 3-months upward trendline
Finally, adding to the negative outlook for UST is the end of QE2. Even though the Fed will continue to re-invest maturing bonds, the support for the market is clearly dropping. As an example, at the last 7y UST auction, the Treasury sold USD29bn. Dealers bid for USD 62.3bn and were allocated USD 11.4bn. On June 1 (one day after the auction settled), the dealers sold USD 5.4bn back to the Fed in the Permanent Open Markets Operation and a week later sold another USD 3.2bn. Given that the dealers knew they could sell the bonds back to the Fed just a few days after the auction, they were happy to bid large amounts. Now, however, this game is over and we should expect to see a significant drop in dealer bids at upcoming auctions and in turn intensifying price pressures.