tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78933495759616701672024-03-13T09:01:05.733+01:00Research AheadBig Picture Economic Outlook, Asset Allocation & Rates StrategyD Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.comBlogger185125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-20029039512109573292015-11-12T09:39:00.000+01:002015-11-12T09:39:38.113+01:00Moderate global growth but ongoing European & US upswingPlease find below a short summary of some structural themes and the building blocks for my medium term/2016 outlook:<br />
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1.) <b>Trend growth rates have fallen</b> in a large number of economies amid worsening demographics as well as lower productivity growth. Still, US trend growth (of currently around 1 3/4%) should be able to increase moderately amid slightly more favorable demographics and moderately rising productivity growth. <br />
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2.) The <b>Great Moderation 2.0</b> – the notion that macro-economic volatility has become lower on a structural basis – remains in play. Macro-prudential policies are adding to the reasons for an environment of structurally low macro-economic volatility in developed market economies. In turn, upswings will be more muted but longer-lasting, downswings should be milder and shorter. The current long but mild upswing in the US economy is a case in point. (For more see <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2014/05/macro-prudential-policies-great.html" target="_blank">Macro-prudential policies and the Great Moderation 2.0</a>)<br />
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3.) The commodity super-cycle has gone into reverse and weighs on commodity producers. A large number of important Emerging Markets and commodity producers is going through <b>the Third Wave</b> of the global debt-deleveraging cycle. The first wave – the global financial crisis – started when dropping asset values lead to an evaporation of equity capital in the highly leveraged banking sector. During the second wave – the Eurozone debt crisis – the peripheral countries saw their deficits and debt ratios balloon while market access deteriorated, forcing sovereigns to dramatically tighten fiscal policy. Now, we are in the midst of the third wave, a debt-deflation spiral which is spreading amongst emerging market and commodity producing corporates where indebtedness has risen significantly over the past years. Given a reduction in asset prices – amid weaker growth and lower commodity prices – and higher debt values for those corporates with US-Dollar denominated debt, an increasing number of corporates is being forced to deleverage. In general the period of strong growth across emerging markets, rising commodity prices, strong capital inflows into EMs, the build-up of large FX reserves and a weak US-Dollar were all interconnected but have gone into reverse over the past two years. Now we have weak EM growth, sideways to falling commodity prices, capital flowing out of EM and commodity producers back into Europe and the US, a strong US-Dollar as well as a draw-down of FX reserves. (Further details here: <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2015/10/the-third-wave-debt-deflation-spiral.html" target="_blank">The Third Wave: Debt-deflation spiral reaches the corporate sector</a>)<br />
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4.) The economic backdrop will likely worsen further in a number of EM and commodity producing countries. However, <b>China</b> as the most important emerging market should not suffer from a hard landing. While Chinese growth finds itself on a structural downward trend, cyclically growth should be able to stabilise at lower levels amid the support provided by ongoing macro-economic easing steps, from both the fiscal and the monetary policy side.<br />
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5.) The <b>outlook for Europe and the US</b> <b>is a favourable one</b>:<br />
<ul>
<li>Improved structural situation. Macro-economic imbalances have been reduced, especially in the Eurozone periphery, bank balance sheets have been significantly improved and structural budget deficits have been reduced materially.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
US & Eurozone current account and budget balances</div>
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<img border="0" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwj4-7kEqfymz-txN6vxjQXWmTYMaVt4XXklwQwnUiNLgJYjI4D_wKZvsbS5EEfAq2NPJM1cEkWvYhceElPNDkjkP09SenuSc6ayaOUSkl0gdAKGLAArlf-so1LEJUFKnB0e4FmIzc2Qdu/s320/chart.png" width="320" /></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Bloomberg</span></span></div>
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</li>
<li>Growth friendly macro-economic policies: Despite the likely start of the rate hiking cycle in the US around the turn of the year and later on in the UK, monetary policy will stay accommodative. In the Eurozone, monetary policy will become even more accommodative amid further ECB action as well as a gradual restoration in the transmission mechanism (i.e. improved credit availability). Fiscal policy will not be restrictive anymore and can become even moderately accommodative (especially in the US and Germany). The Eurozone economy has moved from the blue square in the table below in 2009/10 via the red square in 2011-2013 to the grey one in 2014/15. In 2016 it might just shift into the green area. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9wGU85Wj5Vz454syS6LCoOwwAgQJSKgcy4T74eWv1FpigMYVj-gp-buZXewBKOhy9m80byLnxO6t6U66pn8LbxU9tJfVv0NKJBEY1JDcEaKkJnYe_Fl2PKiCPe1Rt7UTPTLmWKGDKbWGG/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9wGU85Wj5Vz454syS6LCoOwwAgQJSKgcy4T74eWv1FpigMYVj-gp-buZXewBKOhy9m80byLnxO6t6U66pn8LbxU9tJfVv0NKJBEY1JDcEaKkJnYe_Fl2PKiCPe1Rt7UTPTLmWKGDKbWGG/s320/chart.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: ResearchAhead</span></div>
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</li>
<li>Rebounding inflation rates: Inflation rates will bottom during autumn and should rise noticeably into late winter amid strong base effects. Thereafter, it can slowly move slightly higher over the medium term. Current inflation rates are around 0% mainly amid the previous collapse in energy prices (as well as the strong USD in case of the US). These effects should weaken in the months ahead. As a result, the Fed’s “Window to wait” and the ECB’s “Window to act” will close early next year unless the economies cool materially. The chart below shows the development of US CPI inflation. In the first scenario, the seasonally adjusted CPI index is left unchanged, meaning that there are zero inflation pressures from now on. In the second scenario, the core CPI index continues to rise by the average rise increase far this year (i.e. core inflation pressures remain unchanged). In the first case, yoy CPI can rise to +1.2% in January, in the latter case even to +1.8%.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
US Inflation developments</div>
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<img border="0" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNESb1tFWI2itSmH6NYAUUTYry0Ny3ygaYaCLUmnLjAX51as06aiU-Gu_bTqDhxsZ3PLRvjWGkEcZJnG9IHpvuURLqEEA4TE9keO7kS5rpBmFNBz7Ftq-oLQ9GSBvUqqAxjXArHyvrAQrd/s320/chart.png" width="320" /></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Bloomberg, ResearchAhead</span></div>
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</li>
<li>The strong USD, the subdued growth environment in EMs as well as commodity producers hurt industrial companies while the low energy prices weigh on the oil & gas sector. On the other side, the recovering housing and labour markets as well as low energy prices support domestic consumers. The discrepancy between the global economy focused/export dependent manufacturing sectors on the one side and the more domestically/consumer oriented services sectors on the other can continue. However, manufacturing and mining account for only 14.5% of US GDP while the private service sectors account for 67.5% of GDP. In the Eurozone, the export environment should in general do ok as the Eurozone and UK economies are mostly dependent on each other as well as the US and depend less on Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>The Fed will start hiking rates soon, followed a few months later by the BoE. Rate hiking processes will be gradual and the upward pressure on the currencies should provide for part of the necessary tightening. The ECB on the other side will ease monetary policy somewhat further.</li>
</ul>
6.) Overall, therefore, the global economy should be growing at a moderate pace. However, given the recent significant downgrading in forecasts, it can surprise positively vs. expectations given developments in Europe and the US. Inflation pressures remain limited due to weak commodity prices and global excess capacity. Still, as described above actual inflation rates in Europe and especially the US will rise back closer towards the central banks’ targets.<br />
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7.) The multi-decade bond bull market in Europe and the US has ended. While easy monetary policy should keep bond yields below nominal GDP growth – especially in the Eurozone - improved real growth, moderately higher inflation rates and the start of the US rate hiking cycle should take bond yields higher in the years ahead even though this should be a gradual process. Given the very low yields, sovereign bonds do not provide a large enough cushion against such adverse market movements and negative total returns are likely.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
10y German Bund yield vs. Eurozone nominal GDP growth</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihpwK3VLG2Bz0B9ph-vbPOqHIp5Zhh7LgNSkB44_ifgzOGeZM6iz_TqU0q9V7gGSRL3UCup0Btq9hO6FwdgwvgrBmKZoVb3HTKf6Er5Z7JouVKhtrn4oPZQX1dhhGBdLeTNiF_6fxO9ZBv/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihpwK3VLG2Bz0B9ph-vbPOqHIp5Zhh7LgNSkB44_ifgzOGeZM6iz_TqU0q9V7gGSRL3UCup0Btq9hO6FwdgwvgrBmKZoVb3HTKf6Er5Z7JouVKhtrn4oPZQX1dhhGBdLeTNiF_6fxO9ZBv/s320/chart.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Bloomberg</span></div>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-35868988232305764932015-10-02T17:34:00.000+02:002015-10-02T17:34:06.499+02:00The Third Wave: Debt-deflation spiral reaches the corporate sector<div style="text-align: justify;">
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Already two
years ago I warned about the bursting of the Emerging Markets bubble (see for
example <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2013/08/developed-markets-growth-improvement-vs.html" target="_blank"><span style="mso-fareast-language: DE;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Developed markets growth improvementvs. busting EM bubble</span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;"> dated August 23 2013). While in the meantime
growth in the Eurozone has improved, the situation has indeed worsened across a
large number of emerging markets and commodity producing economies. In fact I
now think that important parts of the EM and commodity producing corporates
face a new debt-deflation spiral which slows down world trade and has already
started to negatively impact the US economy.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">From 2007 onwards, the unwinding of real estate bubbles forced the overleveraged banking system into deleveraging mode. The resulting adverse and self-reinforcing feedback loop (lower asset prices - weaker banking sector balance sheets - more restrictive credit environment & selling of assets - weaker economy & lower asset prices) threatened the global financial system. This systemic crisis could only be overcome with the help of central banks providing an unprecedented amount of liquidity support and massive fiscal easing programmes. In addition, important financial institutions had to be bailed-out and bad assets were transferred onto the sovereign balance sheet. In order to render the banking system less vulnerable, Over the past years, banks had to secure additional capital and reduce the size of their balance-sheets, thereby lowering their leverage ratios.
Due to the massive support programmes the fiscal positions of a large number of developed market sovereigns deteriorated markedly as debt-GDP ratios and budget deficits soared. In turn, debt-dynamics worsened materially and from 2011 onwards, the Eurozone peripheral countries suffered a sovereign debt crisis. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">During this second wave of the global debt-deflation spiral, yields on peripheral debt skyrocketed and the peripheral sovereigns lost market access. Sovereigns were forced to implement drastic fiscal tightening measures which, however, forced their economies into recessions, thereby aggravating the debt crisis. Only with the help of the Eurozone core sovereigns fiscal capacity (via the EFSM/ESM) and the ECB (initially via the SMP and then more importantly the OMT and lately QE) this negative feedback loop could be broken. While debt-GDP ratios remain at very high levels, deficits have been reduced materially in the meantime and with the help of record low yields projected debt dynamics have been improving materially. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">The banking sectors in the US and Europe have been gradually emerging from the financial crisis and leverage ratios have been reduced significantly. Lately also the peripheral Eurozone countries have seen growth rising back into positive territory while the fiscal positions have improved. Now, however, a new third wave of the global debt-deflation spiral is gathering strength , this time in the corporate sector – mainly but not exclusively in the commodities and emerging markets (EM) space. During the past decade, EMs have grown strongly and as these economies exhibit a high commodity intensity of growth, the demand for commodities increased markedly. Coupled with low growth in commodity supply, this lead to the commodities super-cycle. Moreover, just as the global economy emerged from the financial crisis from 2009 onwards, capital flows into EMs and commodity producing economies skyrocketed. On the one side, these countries had healthy fundamentals and a favourable structural growth story. On the other side, investors in Europe and the US wanted to leave their home countries amid the dire state of their economies while the ever increasing supply of central bank money via liquidity provisions and QE put downward pressure on the currencies. In turn, the annual capital inflow into emerging market economies increased from USD 500bn per year in the 2000-2007 period to USD1.100bn in the 2010-2013 period according to the World Bank. Furthermore, the cumulative issuance of external bonds increased from USD 520bn in the eight years up to the financial crisis to USD 1490bn in 2010-2013. Finally, most of the growth in external issuance occurred not from the sovereign sector but from the EM corporate sector. Asia – in particular China - and Latin America were at the forefront of this process as the chart below shows. In addition, the commodity and construction sectors were responsible for the bulk of increased issuance activity. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">As a result, corporate debt relative to GDP increased to approx. 75% across the EM world by 2014 according to the IMF. However, at the same time the growth backdrop has deteriorated markedly starting around 2013 given the build up in (private sector) indebtedness, a loss of competitiveness, rising current account deficits/falling surpluses and growing political risks in a number of countries. Furthermore, the Chinese economic growth is trending lower on a structural basis amid lower productivity growth, worsening demographics and as the economy shifts from manufacturing to services. As a result, the supply-demand balance for most commodities has shifted fundamentally as past investments lead to increasing supply while the muted economic dynamic dampens demand growth. On the other side, systemic risks in the Eurozone have receded while real growth in Europe and the US has been slowly rising. Moreover, as QE in the US has ended and with the Fed moving closer to rate hikes, the US-Dollar has started to appreciate considerably. In turn, capital has been flowing back into the US and Europe and out of EMs and commodity producing economies, putting downward prices on their exchange rates and asset markets. This, however, results in another increase in corporate sector balance sheet leverage as shown by the left-hand chart below. Moreover, as foreign currency debts – largely in USD – have become more popular, the rising USD increases the value of debt while revenues are under pressure given low commodity prices and weaker growth. Hence, there is a new negative feedback loop in progress as a drop in revenues/profitability coupled with high leverage ratios will see an ever increasing share of revenues being devoted to debt service. Pressure mounts to cut costs or dispose of assets which, however, weighs further on economic growth and asset prices. Rising corporate bond yields are only aggravating this process and an increasing number of corporates risks losing bond markets access if this debt-deflation spiral worsens. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">Corporate leverage and debt ratios have been rising markedly</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCSmzxe3fsTdqG1zPrgNRQU0oT-DXh_rhYBvDn5mRanzjhTrQ3px2-Tx4BuEY5tC7K_BwNTdRL7Oe9ocDJzDexWvKbYLBDBuSazhP0MY_eMmpOOmOvBk0ui8WI6BhSGpM18AlGacOdF9wh/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="97" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCSmzxe3fsTdqG1zPrgNRQU0oT-DXh_rhYBvDn5mRanzjhTrQ3px2-Tx4BuEY5tC7K_BwNTdRL7Oe9ocDJzDexWvKbYLBDBuSazhP0MY_eMmpOOmOvBk0ui8WI6BhSGpM18AlGacOdF9wh/s400/chart.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: x-small; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;"> Source: IMF</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">This is a corporate sector crises in a growing number of countries and also increasingly affects some corporate sectors in Europe and the US (for example basic resources & materials, machinery & equipment etc.). Given that in comparison to the banking sector corporates exhibit lower leverage ratios and usually have longer maturity bonds outstanding rather than vast amounts of very short term paper, this debt-deflation process should be of a slower nature than the first two waves. In addition, the sovereigns of most affected economies are not overly indebted and several have significant fx reserves which they can use to support the domestic currency or to bail-out parts of the corporate sector. Nonetheless, growth across EMs and commodity producing countries promises to slow down even further/remain at low levels for some time. This should weigh on global growth as well as trade flows and keep disinflationary pressures alive. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">As time progresses, the damage to the European and US economies should become more noticeable. US growth will likely moderate somewhat to around 2%. While the & gas sector is suffering from the collapse in energy prices and the internationally focused large corporates remain burdened by the strong USD, the more domestically oriented smaller corporates as well as the services sectors are doing ok. This is also being mirrored by the discrepancy between the ISM manufacturing and the non-manufacturing indices (see left-hand chart below). Industrial production growth has already slowed down markedly to only 0.9% yoy in august. However, growth in real personal consumption expenditures (which account for roughly 70% of GDP) remains above 3% yoy and is supported by the combination of a robust housing market, ongoing albeit weakening employment gains as well as the collapse in energy prices which restores households’ purchasing power. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">US (left) and Eurozone (right) service vs. manufacturing PMIs </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9wmPolEJxj2ZIjxH5mousGteMXARPgUHzXXajQtBuorcD01vUuApYQW13k-fdoFZ33x3PFqbdOwH5f8-K98Rou6EhusCbM6XTHvP47XkDM6rRJWDHkQkHp1lirI-nNMwA0sDMDEWB5g88/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="103" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9wmPolEJxj2ZIjxH5mousGteMXARPgUHzXXajQtBuorcD01vUuApYQW13k-fdoFZ33x3PFqbdOwH5f8-K98Rou6EhusCbM6XTHvP47XkDM6rRJWDHkQkHp1lirI-nNMwA0sDMDEWB5g88/s400/chart.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Source: Bloomberg</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">For Europe, the export environment will likely deteriorate as well over the quarters ahead. However, export shares of Eurozone countries going to the US and the rest of other Western Europe (ex. Norway) are about 2.5times as high as the export shares going to all emerging markets. Hence, the European economies depend mostly on each other and the US. As these countries remain in moderate growth mode, the export slowdown should not be dramatic. More importantly, the combination of easing negative growth effects of fiscal tightening efforts, record low interest rates – with finally also an accommodative monetary policy environment in the peripheral countries – the collapse in energy prices and the restoration of internal competitiveness in parts of the periphery should continue to support the economy. Similar to the US, though, the gap between services and manufacturing PMIs promises to become even more pronounced. Hence, while global growth is subdued and likely to moderate further, the domestic oriented parts of the European and US economies US should do ok, thereby preventing a sharper slowdown. Inflation, though, promises to be very low for longer with inflation expectations likely to drop further as upward pressure on currencies and downward pressure on commodities persist. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">The US Fed remains focused on starting a very gradual rate hiking process as the domestic economy remains in growth mode while they regard current low inflation rates as transitory. For the corporate debt-deflation spiral, however, such higher US policy rates are part of the problem as they threaten to propel the USD and corporate bond yields to even higher levels. The ECB on its part will likely adjust its QE programme amid very low inflation expectations via extending the minimum buying period beyond September 2016. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;"> Credit risk is being repriced into corporates just as sovereigns have regained the safe-haven status</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5vMrTn_S4Gv62njcsQUvVdFqCFoSR06uFa59hXeWm5AUJyzd4xeQIMAPr7yLSm3eTplHn_RBmb3-gWqVKrmxV5_3NULY65AT0-JN1gJTmOUvUApWS_uQuO9OosXtk7umokZcEQQsruPpk/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5vMrTn_S4Gv62njcsQUvVdFqCFoSR06uFa59hXeWm5AUJyzd4xeQIMAPr7yLSm3eTplHn_RBmb3-gWqVKrmxV5_3NULY65AT0-JN1gJTmOUvUApWS_uQuO9OosXtk7umokZcEQQsruPpk/s320/chart.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Source: Bloomberg</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: DE;">A renewed fundamental shift in the supply-demand balance for commodities, a large dose of fiscal easing in China or a new round of US Dollar liquidity creation (aka QE4) would likely be able to break or at least significantly ease this debt-deflation spiral. For the time being, though, the situation for those corporates located in or being strongly dependent on emerging markets or commodity producing countries will probably become even more challenging. As a result, a cautious stance towards global corporate risk remains warranted. Sovereign debt should still be favoured over corporate debt and the sovereign bond outperformance has likely not yet ended. Within developed markets, domestic, services and household goods oriented as well as smaller corporates should be favoured over export dependent and manufacturing oriented as well as larger and highly indebted corporates. In general, it seems too early to move back into emerging markets and into commodities with the notable exception of precious metals where strategic longs can slowly be opened.
</span></div>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-75205146151746124052015-06-02T14:14:00.004+02:002015-06-02T14:14:50.311+02:00Phase II of the global bond bear market has started<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Following
the sharp rise in yields between mid-April to mid-May, 10y Bund yields have
fallen moderately back to around 50bp. This movement lower was probably caused
by the previous technically oversold condition for bond prices coupled with the
ongoing uncertainty relating to Greece, weakish US data as well as doubts with
respect to the inflation outlook for the Eurozone as evidenced by the sharp
drop in Eurozone inflation expectations over recent weeks. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, this should only be regarded as a
consolidation/correction within a multi-year bond bear market which started
this spring (and at the end of January in the case of US Treasuries and Gilts).
With signs of an improving US fundamental backdrop becoming stronger, Eurozone
inflation surprising to the upside and some movement in the Greek negotiations,
global bond yields have just started on their next leg higher. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">First, US
growth should improve again. US economic data has surprised negatively in
recent months due to several factors. The harsh winter weather has held back
the economy temporarily while the US West Coast port strike distorted the
supply chain. Both factors, however, are of temporary nature only and should
have started to reverse already. In addition, given that the US economy is a very
large oil & gas producer and given that the fracking technology allows for
an almost instantaneous adaption to changing market circumstances, the negative
effects of lower oil prices on the oil & gas sector have for the past few
months exerted a downward pressure on growth. The growth positive effects of
lower oil prices – via increased purchasing power for households and reduced
price pressures for energy-consuming corporates – usually take much longer to
develop and should only start to become visible. Finally, seasonal adjustments
continue to play havoc with US economic data releases. For example the San
Francisco Fed estimated in a recent working paper that the residual seasonality
of the US economy during Q1 amounts to 1.6% this year (i.e. growth in Q1 has
been underestimated by this amount). The chart below highlights that this
problem has grown larger over recent decades. </span><br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Average
quarterly US GDP growth<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheReZOnKdzCal9Hhf87qSfVsZlQqPidUFXMr8P5vx51lsq4xLywa0QVf_ITdWDNk-JiNpF9U5RkJ425KY6EY2SvDiDXbWSx8YcfzJYafxUxhNSKwnT39oaG80frMesWZWAW3Ud-0jrpDWA/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheReZOnKdzCal9Hhf87qSfVsZlQqPidUFXMr8P5vx51lsq4xLywa0QVf_ITdWDNk-JiNpF9U5RkJ425KY6EY2SvDiDXbWSx8YcfzJYafxUxhNSKwnT39oaG80frMesWZWAW3Ud-0jrpDWA/s320/ChartBlog.png" width="320" /></a></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: x-small; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Source: San
Francisco Federal Reserve</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This
problem of seasonal adjustments is also clearly visible in the US ISM index
which surprised positively yesterday. The chart below compares the seasonal
adjustment factors applied to the raw data in 2007 with those applied this
year. As can be seen, April saw a significant upward revision of seasonal
adjustment factors, resulting in lower levels of the adjusted data. However,
from May onwards this reverses and in June (as well as in September) the
seasonal factors are below those applied in 2007. This is all the more
remarkable as seasonality should have dropped in the US economy over the past 8
years and not grown. The highly seasonal construction sector as well as the
manufacturing sector have become smaller relative to GDP while the less
seasonal service sectors such as education and healthcare have grown in
importance. Be it as is, the May ISM report out yesterday which showed an
improvement in the index of 1.8 points now paints a more reliable picture of
the underlying state of affairs than in April. Importantly, the new orders
component – seen as a leading indicator – has risen for the second month
running and now stands at a healthy 55.8. </span><br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">US ISM
seasonal adjustment factors 2015 vs. 2007</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj441RZmO3ACSgz6X1ULYkSpMAdtMQRdcKsgGMRL0tr4Li_poJkHCsw6BaXlnNsk0OaIzCV09wWRL5MzvUdN4c9f7oTrXQB5zAg3drw4ox3LbCC3Az7XKyjOrmQtlCc8sm7bqINfcNGT6uc/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj441RZmO3ACSgz6X1ULYkSpMAdtMQRdcKsgGMRL0tr4Li_poJkHCsw6BaXlnNsk0OaIzCV09wWRL5MzvUdN4c9f7oTrXQB5zAg3drw4ox3LbCC3Az7XKyjOrmQtlCc8sm7bqINfcNGT6uc/s320/ChartBlog.png" width="320" /></a></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: DoC</span>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As a
result, the outlook for the US economy remains favourable. The monetary transmission
mechanism has been restored, the housing as well as the labour market have been
improving and the growth negative effects of the previous fiscal tightening
have been absorbed while the level of pent-up demand remains substantial. As
such I remain convinced that the US economy has embarked on a self-sustaining
upswing and that US economic data will improve substantially in the weeks and
months ahead. Therefore, the FOMC remains on course to start hiking rates in
September. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Second, Eurozone inflation continues to increase
faster than anticipated by the markets as well as by the ECB. I have already
previously highlighted that the underlying inflation pressures have been
increasing already since May last year. The chart below separates the
developments in Eurozone inflation into three components. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Commodity
price effects are marked in green (defined as the difference between headline
and core inflation), fiscal policy effects in red (derived from changes in
consumption taxes and prices for administered goods and services) and the
residual in blue. This residual can be thought of as the underlying price
pressures emanating from the private sector. As can be seen, disinflation was
mainly caused by falling commodity prices. Also a reduction in the price
effects of fiscal policy from 0.7% to only 0.1% in March was an important
driver. Underlying price pressures fell as well, from 1,0% at the end of 2011
to 0.1% in May 2014 with likely the strong Euro (reaching its high in March
last year) being responsible for approx. half of this drop. However, these
underlying price pressures have increased steadily since then. That core
inflation stayed at 0.6% until April was almost exclusively due to the reduction
in the price effects of changes in consumption taxes. As these inflation
reducing effects have come to an end, core inflation has now also started to
increase as evidenced today with the preliminary release of +0.95 for May. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Eurozone HICP
and its components</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb-z0_9y4UsU1LrS6S5u41QE7XESP3UyhwcI6v7XBtZHRzrX5zrNmN95tE8zP1X-KoVobQDXMOIJeuxkGsLyCOw1eDEbGtoy_obsAliSTZSquYjf50PAvwL-vDdEBbmggNlrvicelL0h8o/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb-z0_9y4UsU1LrS6S5u41QE7XESP3UyhwcI6v7XBtZHRzrX5zrNmN95tE8zP1X-KoVobQDXMOIJeuxkGsLyCOw1eDEbGtoy_obsAliSTZSquYjf50PAvwL-vDdEBbmggNlrvicelL0h8o/s400/ChartBlog.png" width="400" /></a></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: x-small; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Source:
Eurostat, ResearchAhead</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Inflation
should continue to rise into 2016, be it on the core as well as the headline
measure. Moreover, t</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">he Eurozone growth outlook continues to improve
and growth should rise further over the course of this year, likely hitting
approx. 2.5% on an annualised basis before year-end. While structural
challenges remain, cyclical forces are adding up to a very strong growth
tailwind. The weak Euro, low oil prices, reduced negative growth effects from
fiscal tightening, record low nominal and real yields – at last also in the
periphery – as well as a turnaround in credit creation all act to lift growth. Furthermore,
amid the time lags involved, the positive impetus will get ever stronger in the
months and quarters ahead. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">For bond
markets, the structural bond bull market of recent years has ended. Over the long-term,
developments in sovereign yields and nominal GDP growth are closely linked.
This can be seen in the chart below showing the history of US nominal GDP
growth and 10y UST yields for the past 55 years. The long-term bond bull-market
since the early 80s was fuelled by several components: a drop in long-run trend
growth, a structural reduction in inflation rates as well as an evaporation of
term premia embedded in longer-term bonds with the latter mostly at play in
recent years due to the central banks’ bond buying programmes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Long-run
10y UST yields vs. US nominal GDP growth</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHpy2Ef3p435MD-6A8yJ9AnyxhIZ0UMHyQQcVmY-_gQiq3SpcCYp28y115jWYt9-AK5PaQk7D3fjcJ18spOFd_zV3UVWnwlw236VB8saeHBJrdzG6Sc6fQXPZRRKXCngovQGOeM2Q8Zi46/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHpy2Ef3p435MD-6A8yJ9AnyxhIZ0UMHyQQcVmY-_gQiq3SpcCYp28y115jWYt9-AK5PaQk7D3fjcJ18spOFd_zV3UVWnwlw236VB8saeHBJrdzG6Sc6fQXPZRRKXCngovQGOeM2Q8Zi46/s400/ChartBlog.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: x-small; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> Source: St.
Louis Federal Reserve</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Also in the
Eurozone, nominal growth and 10y Bund yields are moving in sync over the longer
run. However, while the fall in bond yields until last year was mirrored by
fundamental developments (lower inflation and lower growth), the discrepancy
between the level and direction of yields – with 10y Bunds falling to almost 0%
- and the level as well as direction of growth – with growth having improved to
2% in 2014 from the record low 0,8% in 2013 – has become substantial. Also here
this discrepancy should largely stem from the speculation on and subsequent
decision by the ECB to engage in a large scale asset purchase programme. </span><br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">10y Bund
yields vs. Eurozone nominal GDP growth</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHEyuf9YjfDdVMlvq3QrVKmR-UhMqQUqXaeguoO0zqS59vrlQlD8X8NkZLR2I46zuBcIOCIizfg7qUdjn09IDKA4blDVad-IyIu1VjQPIgU9LCK70014fasMIgct8AAa8KmsDvPWo9_zvk/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHEyuf9YjfDdVMlvq3QrVKmR-UhMqQUqXaeguoO0zqS59vrlQlD8X8NkZLR2I46zuBcIOCIizfg7qUdjn09IDKA4blDVad-IyIu1VjQPIgU9LCK70014fasMIgct8AAa8KmsDvPWo9_zvk/s320/ChartBlog.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: x-small; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Source:
Bloomberg</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As a
result, we are in a state where cyclical nominal growth improves – due to both
higher real growth as well as higher inflation rates – while risk premia are
extremely low due to the central bank purchases. This results in an extremely challenging
environment for bond markets. As nominal growth improves, the support provided by
central bank for bond markets decreases over the medium term. The FOMC should
be the first to hike rates, however, also the ECB’s QE days are numbered. While
purchases will last until September 2016, they should be reduced and
potentially even terminated before the end of next year. Moreover, the ECB will
likely increase the depo rate to 0% during 2016 as it ends the emergency state of
negative policy rates. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result, we
have entered a new cyclical bond bear market – due to cyclically higher growth
and inflation. Moreover, while trend growth rates should stay depressed and long-run
inflation should not deviate much from the central banks’ stated targets of
around 2%, the reduced central bank support should lead to a repricing of term
premia over the next years. </span><br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">10y UST
yield takes another attempt at breaking above their long-run downward trend</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg48OcCPtLtUDWEQOFzpGtwJprk0VEyRTCWC3piaIJFl6cTAaHM4FcNbQhgRnEkwt7AvGidz6SilHvyU31nxnr0TP1x6JJWzVwSsm1FjtiH6XwqjBpxmxGm43J42EzMGXtWgQVhxtkFYyf1/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg48OcCPtLtUDWEQOFzpGtwJprk0VEyRTCWC3piaIJFl6cTAaHM4FcNbQhgRnEkwt7AvGidz6SilHvyU31nxnr0TP1x6JJWzVwSsm1FjtiH6XwqjBpxmxGm43J42EzMGXtWgQVhxtkFYyf1/s320/ChartBlog.png" width="320" /></a></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: x-small; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Source:
Bloomberg</span></div>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-5904906787128220152015-04-30T13:03:00.000+02:002015-04-30T13:03:10.159+02:00Is this the end of the Bund bull market?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Fundamentally,
Bund yields have fallen too low and should move higher over the remainder of
this year. The move lower in recent weeks has been purely flow-driven to
speculate on higher prices amid a negative net supply given the ECB’s QE
purchases and due to the status of Bunds as a safe-haven in light of fears of
an imminent Greek default. As Greek default risks have receded somewhat and
consensus as well as positioning seems to have become heavily tilted on the
bullish side, it seems likely that the lows in 10y Bund yields are already
behind us. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">First, The
Eurozone growth outlook has been improving and growth should rise markedly over
the course of this year, likely hitting approx. 2.5% on an annualised basis
before year-end. While structural challenges remain, cyclical forces are adding
up to a very strong growth tailwind. The weak Euro, low oil prices, reduced
negative growth effects from fiscal tightening, record low nominal and real
yields – at last also in the periphery – as well as a turnaround in credit
creation all act to lift growth. Moreover, amid the time lags involved, the
positive impetus will get ever stronger in the months and quarters ahead. Business
sentiment has improved noticeably since late last year and can improve
further.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Not only has real growth moved on an upward
path, but also the three years’ long disinflation has ended and headline
inflation rose already from –0.6% to 0% in April. The chart below shows the
Eurozone yoy inflation rate and divides it into three components. Commodity
price effects are marked in green (defined as the difference between headline
and core inflation), fiscal policy effects in red (derived from changes in
consumption taxes and prices for administered goods and services) and the
residual in blue. This residual can be thought of as the underlying price
pressures emanating from the private sector. As can be seen, disinflation was
mainly caused by falling commodity prices. Also a reduction in the price
effects of fiscal policy from 0.7% to only 0.1% in March was an important
driver. Underlying price pressures fell as well, from 1,0% at the end of 2011
to 0.1% in May 2014 with likely the strong Euro (reaching its high in March
last year) being responsible for approx. half of this drop. However, these
underlying price pressures have increased already and have risen to +0.5% yoy
last month. Core inflation of 0.6% in April – matching the record low of
January and March – masks the slowly increasing underlying price pressures amid
a reduction in the price effects of changes in consumption taxes. As a result, not
only headline inflation is likely to move noticeably higher in the months ahead
– as oil prices have started to recover – but also core inflation can rise
moderately into year-end. </span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Eurozone inflation: Underlying inflation pressures have already increased (data until March) </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA_xSJEdCWfrAhOfyMSuieqvx5mFH_zLh8nsVtN5YkbOzPqa87LramBKXdBMvRRWHuIegdWI8kBP3oxS6oA1XePZdAhLFl4ecxVhG-gvii3zU1I0CYxljXLe-MsULPJ2VlP08KpZ88eBQz/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA_xSJEdCWfrAhOfyMSuieqvx5mFH_zLh8nsVtN5YkbOzPqa87LramBKXdBMvRRWHuIegdWI8kBP3oxS6oA1XePZdAhLFl4ecxVhG-gvii3zU1I0CYxljXLe-MsULPJ2VlP08KpZ88eBQz/s1600/ChartBlog.png" height="162" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"> Source: Eurostat, Research Ahead</span></span></div>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This
combination of substantially rising real growth from below trend to markedly
above trend and inflation moving back into positive territory will exert
increasing upward pressure on bond yields as the year progresses. What is more
as these economic developments take hold doubts that the ECB will maintain its
ultra-easy monetary policy stance until at least autumn 2016 and speculations
that it will taper purchases and/or might increase the negative depo rate back
to 0% before that time should become increasingly stronger. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Moreover, the
rising uncertainty with respect to Greece and the threat of an imminent default
have also supported the safe haven of German government bonds in recent weeks.
The support provided by the latter has gone into reverse, however. The Greek
government introduced a bill which forces<strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> municipalities and state
enterprises to transfer their cash holdings to the central government providing
it with the necessary liquidity to fund upcoming loan redemptions. </span></strong>In
addition, over the past few days PM Tsipras has reshuffled the Greek
negotiation team, reduced the power of finance minister Varoufakis, suggested a
new list with reforms and hinted at a possible referendum for the public to
decide whether they accept the necessary reforms in order to secure a new
bail-out and stay in the Euro. All this has reduced the imminent default risk
and thus also the support for Bunds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Furthermore,
ever since the ECB decided to engage in large scale asset purchases in
February, the main argument for buying Bunds was the negative net supply on the
back of large ECB purchases and a balanced budget. This lead to a
bull-flattening of the curve as investors piled into this shrinking asset
class. However, such a flow driven rally leads valuations ever further away
from fundamental developments (which as stated above suggest rising yields).
With the bullish sentiment becoming dominant and positioning likely tilted in
favour of longs, the additional buying by speculative accounts dries up whereas
the fundamentally driven accounts as well as life insurers and pension funds
have already moved to the sidelines amid too low yields and expensive valuations.
As a result, buying dries up – barring the ECB/Bundesbank - and it does not
take a lot to cause a wave of profit taking. </span></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Finally, the technical market backdrop for Bunds
has deteriorated. As the chart below shows for 10y Bund yields, stochastics have
turned higher from oversold territory. In addition, the downward trend in place
since September last year (which was fuelled by QE speculation) has been broken
to the upside which provides a first bearish technical signal. This still
leaves another downward trend in place since the start of 2014 (which started
on the back of disinflation and weak growth). However, this more important
longer-term trend running at slightly below 0,40% needs to be broken first to
render the picture outright bearish. Still, over the past twelve months lower
Bund yields have dragged longer-dated UST and Gilt yields lower. Now, the
relationship has changed and higher UST and Gilt yields (which are already up
by approx. 40bp and 50bp respectively since their lows at the end of January)
start to put upward pressure on Eurozone yields.</span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Downward trend in 10y Bund yields in place since September has been broken to the upside </span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeUgXBlpmkgtYRw4TKQwQGa9G1PUVG2PqucnKyuG2nFp_O0UdSjGrnrhfVHVGWuypMo2a0QIMrzgrn6LYsYiZseSfb9KfFGdNrC_mCdJmmhCdSkP_YKXwFkJVH0KtDRI8D235YR0zdoOq0/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeUgXBlpmkgtYRw4TKQwQGa9G1PUVG2PqucnKyuG2nFp_O0UdSjGrnrhfVHVGWuypMo2a0QIMrzgrn6LYsYiZseSfb9KfFGdNrC_mCdJmmhCdSkP_YKXwFkJVH0KtDRI8D235YR0zdoOq0/s1600/ChartBlog.png" height="165" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"> Source: Bloomberg</span></span></div>
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</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">As a result,
I regard Bunds as fundamentally expensive and expect the fundamental
fair-value for yields to increase as the year progresses. The ECB’s purchases will
continue to keep Bund yields below any estimate of fair-value, however. Still
the upward pressure on yields should intensify during summer and I believe that
the yield lows are already behind us and the long Bund bull market has ended.
The process of a gradual duration reduction in Eurozone bond portfolios can
continue. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"></span></div>
<br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span>D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-85505279375371760092015-02-27T16:41:00.000+01:002015-02-27T16:41:21.292+01:00A pronounced cyclical Eurozone upswing is in the offing<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;">The structural factors holding back
the Eurozone remain substantial, most notably poor demographics, high
indebtedness and a lack of reforms in large countries such as France and to a
lesser extent Italy. These structural deficiencies are mainly responsible for relatively
low trend growth, probably close to around 1.5%. On the other side, cyclical
forces are about to provide the strongest aggregate growth support in a long
time. As a result, Eurozone growth should increase markedly in the quarters
ahead, likely moving to around 2.5% on an annualised basis by year-end.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;">First, oil prices in Euro have
collapsed and are now down by approx. a third since June last year. It is thought
that a 10% drop in oil prices reduces the CPI index by approx. 0.2% and might
increase GDP by 0.3%. However, the effects on inflation have largely run their
course after three months while it takes 3-4 quarters before the effects on
growth become visible. Hence, oil prices are only just about to start exerting
their growth positive impetus with the support becoming ever stronger as the
year progresses.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;">Second, the Euro has appreciated
since the summer of 2012 until reaching a high in between Dec13 and March14
before moving slightly lower during summer and sharply lower from December
onwards. Changes in the trade-weighted currency usually take around 6-9 months
before they are being reflected in the economy. Hence, so far only the growth
negative effects of the previous strong Euro period should have been absorbed.
The growth positive effects of the subsequent Euro weakening are just about to
begin and should also become stronger as the year progresses.</span></span></span><br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;">The collapse of oil prices (in Euro,
red) and the fall in the trade-weighted Euro (white) will exert a growth
positive effect</span></span></span>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA-I26e1Wlm34Pr6J4KkivLNJ-U7t71IiindW_rkTC8dA9GXWcrWxp-UthFoIi3rXaFrvgrtwaM5q7mNpA6y-bIesZN_GqfN_E7FDiIAmfIP0Se2n6EoDmMecX7rMPWkpFt62dQauk0EVZ/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA-I26e1Wlm34Pr6J4KkivLNJ-U7t71IiindW_rkTC8dA9GXWcrWxp-UthFoIi3rXaFrvgrtwaM5q7mNpA6y-bIesZN_GqfN_E7FDiIAmfIP0Se2n6EoDmMecX7rMPWkpFt62dQauk0EVZ/s1600/ChartBlog.png" height="146" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: Bloomberg</span> </span></span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;">Third, real yields have moved sharply
lower. 10y German real yields have already from 2009 started to become growth
supportive as they fell from 2% in 2008 to below 1% in 2011 and have traded
below 0% for most of the time since 2012. On the other side, peripheral real
yields have been at historically high levels during recent years, thereby
exerting a growth negative effect on the economy. As an example, 10y BTP real
yields increased from approx. 2.5% in 2008 to 7% in late 2011, before starting
to fall as the ECB implemented its emergency measures. Still, even at the beginning
of last year, 10y Italian real yields hovered around 3%, a substantially
restrictive level for a country where trend growth stands around 0.5%. By now,
though, real yields have fallen to approx. 0.3% and should thus provide for an
increasing growth tailwind.</span><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></span></span></span></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB">10y BTP real
yields (left) have become growth supportive</span></span></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPudI6w_QpfBYH7OTZ5c8gJYlYCl4JTim-bcVlQnsx05ayardHC7gdiCmWURZSWIRicoV9vxgU6LVVKOMR138TIAepTMNWJgqZF-OBg9y7jceImPMykfq_gdbDCESZrFG0NClqYK-Rezli/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPudI6w_QpfBYH7OTZ5c8gJYlYCl4JTim-bcVlQnsx05ayardHC7gdiCmWURZSWIRicoV9vxgU6LVVKOMR138TIAepTMNWJgqZF-OBg9y7jceImPMykfq_gdbDCESZrFG0NClqYK-Rezli/s1600/ChartBlog.png" height="161" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-GB">Source:
Bloomberg</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;">Fourth, credit creation has been
negative ever since the Eurozone sovereign crisis broke out in 2011. The right-hand
chart below shows the yoy growth rate of MFI loans to the private sector. Loan
growth peaked in 2011 when the Eurozone debt crisis broke out and moved into
negative territory. Negative loan growth became even more pronounced during
2013 as banks prepared for the ECB’s comprehensive assessment (as the end 2013
balance sheets were used for the AQR). However, loan growth has bottomed a year
ago and has slowly recovered since. The outstanding level of loans has bottomed
in August last year, just ahead of the release of the AQR results. In between
September 2011 and August 2014, loans were reduced by a total of EUR 670bn, which
also constituted a significant drag on the economy. Looking ahead, though, the
banking sector has been largely recapitalised and the new single supervisory
mechanism (SSM) is now in place. Banks are thus finally in a position to more
actively manage their balance sheets while improving growth coupled with lower
loan rates – substantially so in the periphery – suggests that loan demand
should pick up again. Hence, credit creation promises to move back into
positive territory, thereby also turning from a growth headwind to a tailwind.</span><span lang="EN-GB"> </span></span></span><br />
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB">Credit creation has
bottomed</span></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEsWzNyM-XoCahau-sFYyXDpu9U9_OQVCW70nBCbjShXvP6gTc-nKty_P-a5VhAsk4OUeKmchnZYMvi3xmmkEQEZ_Tq7PbOoyjFxEPVq8Pw4RT2_CLWz-q8OteV6gGodZcYRR_v_SgBQcp/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEsWzNyM-XoCahau-sFYyXDpu9U9_OQVCW70nBCbjShXvP6gTc-nKty_P-a5VhAsk4OUeKmchnZYMvi3xmmkEQEZ_Tq7PbOoyjFxEPVq8Pw4RT2_CLWz-q8OteV6gGodZcYRR_v_SgBQcp/s1600/ChartBlog.png" height="162" width="400" /></a></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: x-small;">Source:
Bloomberg</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;">As a result, monetary policy has
finally become accommodative for the periphery for the first time since the
Eurozone debt crisis broke out in 2011. Moreover, fiscal policy has been a significant
drag on growth in recent years amid large scale austerity measures. According
to the IMF, the cyclically adjusted primary balance for the Eurozone has moved
from a deficit of 2.5% in 2010 to a surplus of 1.2% in 2014. Hence, fiscal
policy has accounted for a drag of approx. 4% of GDP or 1% per year in recent
years. However, the austerity drive has weakened during recent quarters and
fiscal policy has moved from being very restrictive to becoming only mildly so
and thus the growth negative impact should be much smaller as well.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;">On a country basis, Germany should
continue to do well amid growing exports and a supportive backdrop for the
domestic economy (low real yields, high employment, rising real wages). More
importantly, France and Italy promise to move from below trend to above trend
growth by the end of next year. The substantially weaker Euro should be of
vital importance for these countries exporters given that they mainly compete
via price and less via product complexity/quality such as for example Germany.
In the case of Italy, the sharp drop in nominal and real yields should also
provide for relatively higher support. </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height: 115%;">Summing up, monetary policy as well
as oil price and exchange rate developments turn from a significant growth
negative factor towards a marked growth positive one while the growth negative
impetus of fiscal policy abates. Therefore, Eurozone growth should move from a below
trend pace to a markedly above trend one of around 2.5% on an annualised basis
towards year-end. As growth improves, so should the long-run trajectories for
the debt-GDP ratios across the Eurozone. The structural primary balances have
mostly moved into surplus already and fiscal deficits should become
significantly lower amid higher growth and lower yields. Markets should
increasingly focus on these materially improving Eurozone growth prospects. </span></span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"></span>D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-12166071838714462872015-01-16T16:55:00.000+01:002015-01-16T16:55:24.306+01:00Swiss policy mistakeThe removal of the EURCHF floor by the SNB is a very large policy mistake. Apparently the inflows into the Swiss franc have been too large for the SNB to continue increasing its balance sheet in order to absorb the inflow and keep the floor intact. Moreover, as the ECB will engage in QE next week, the SNB feared that the inflows would even increase further and given the strength of the USD over recent months (which dampens the appreciation of the CHF on a trade-weighted basis) probably thought that it could get out of the minimum exchange rate floor policy relatively easily.<br />
However, what the SNB has done is tighten monetary policy sharply as well as injecting a heavy dose of policy uncertainty into the Swiss economy.<br />
First, inflation has already fallen into negative territory in December amid the fall in oil prices and should have expected to fall further in the short term. Now, however, the SNB has added another sharp deflationary shock for the Swiss economy. In turn, inflation - on the headline and core measures - will fall significantly further. While it has also lowered the 3m Libor target rate as well as the rate charged for deposits held with the SNB from -0.25% to -0.75%, nominal bond yields and mortgage rates are unlikely to fall to the same extent as inflation. Thus, not only has the currency appreciated sharply within a matter of minutes, but also expected real yields have probably risen (unfortunately this is a guess as there are no CHF inflation swaps). While SNB president Jordan stated that the Swiss exporters have had 3.5y of time to adapt to the higher CHF, the new appreciation is very drastic and has never occurred in such a fast period of time. In turn, exporters have just lost 20% in terms of international cost competitiveness overnight, a development which will cause significant pain. Besides exports, also investments should be negatively affected amid the lower exports, the renewed monetary uncertainty as well as the likely higher real yields. In turn, nominal growth - which has already been muted in recent years - will likely turn negative in the quarters ahead.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Trade-weighted Swiss franc shoots to all-time high</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTON0jt9PkTgjZl82F8OUSTysDqtnVISz0eTS_Kex0ziJYgdFkrPCEbTJLFw5PBFi81_g2ykLT910TT74vUAD_7-sQ-w751l5B3PKMevXIWstVXQaTi0GfBZ4W8hytn_zlhKsicTexVauF/s1600/CHF+Trade+weighted.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTON0jt9PkTgjZl82F8OUSTysDqtnVISz0eTS_Kex0ziJYgdFkrPCEbTJLFw5PBFi81_g2ykLT910TT74vUAD_7-sQ-w751l5B3PKMevXIWstVXQaTi0GfBZ4W8hytn_zlhKsicTexVauF/s1600/CHF+Trade+weighted.png" height="160" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: Bloomberg</span></div>
<br />
Moreover, this step is unlikely to end the inflows into the Swiss currency. For one, Switzerland and thus the Swiss franc has likely seen large capital inflows recently not only due to the Euro's renewed weakness but probably even more so due to capital flight out of Russia. Switzerland's safe-haven status, the fact that several Russian oligarchs already operate out of Switzerland and in addition that Switzerland is only half-heartedly following the EU sanctions against Russia should be responsible. The ongoing Ukraine/Russian crisis suggests that these inflows will remain. Moreover, as QE in the Eurozone just gets going, the downward pressure on the Euro will likely remain, not least due to uncertainty with respect to Greek political developments. As a result - and given that the Swiss current account surplus amounts to approx. 10% of GDP - inflows into the Swiss franc and thus appreciation pressure should remain. The negative 0.75% interest rate on SNB deposits is only a weak form to counteract more safe-haven inflows as most of the deposits are not affected anyhow (due to high allowances) and given that 0.75% per year does not seem a lot for those fearing for their wealth. Hence, in order not to see the Swiss franc appreciating much further, the SNB will still be forced to intervene, however, now at lower EURCHF levels and with a much lower institutional credibility. The only alternative to save the Swiss export sector from even more pain might be some kind of capital controls (which would be done by the government). It seems that the SNB did not gain much as it still needs to intervene in large amounts but clearly damaged its credibility and has just forced nominal GDP growth significantly lower. D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-39145941951514487422014-05-15T10:09:00.004+02:002014-05-15T10:09:57.622+02:00Macro-prudential policies & the Great Moderation 2.0<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Macro-economic volatility has
decreased substantially from the mid 80s onwards in a large number of
economies. This period of reduced macro volatility was termed the Great Moderation. However, during the financial
crisis GDP growth plummeted and inflation evaporated just to rebound thereafter
amid massive fiscal and monetary easing. This lead macro volatility higher and
stopped the talk of the Great Moderation. However, as of late volatility in a
large number of economic data – most notably growth and inflation – has
decreased again. This is shown in the chart below for US real GDP growth. There
are a number of reasons for a more stable growth development, most notably that
modern economies are far less dependent on the very cyclical and volatile
manufacturing sectors but more dependent on less cyclical and less correlated
services sectors (for example, education and healthcare). Moreover, inventory
management has also been a key factor in determining macro-economic
volatility. During good times,
manufacturers and retailers increase their inventories, thereby leading to even
higher growth. During bad times, though, they want to reduce inventories and as
a result, production needs to be decreased by more than demand has fallen,
aggravating the downturn. Nowadays, however, more manufacturers use just-in-time
management methods and are used to lean inventories. As a result, this also
reduces macro-economic volatility (and again services are less volatile as
services can not be stored and hence there is no inventory problem).
Additionally, the state has a larger role within the economy than during previous
periods and tends to act as an economic stabiliser. Finally, the monetary policy enviornment has changed as central banks increasingly focused on providing for a stable enviornment via the adoption of inflation targets. As central banks have become more credible in securing a low inflation
environment, inflation expectations
and therefore also inflation has become more stable (and inflation tends to be more stable at low levels anyhow). </span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 5pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt;">US GDP and rolling standard deviation: increased stability after the Financial Crisis </span></div>
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaDRBNuQfHPMFq4oBkI22gby57aYro06c7DWy55VNIPKF-lg78gWuN9RshlRb0FmEzoEOqAp_7Jvg8PfAcWezrzjl_sYLx3_Y0NJoGzVs1G4xlFu0swQ49Ier_F3UES9gte3JTNCoDK9Rl/s1600/GM2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaDRBNuQfHPMFq4oBkI22gby57aYro06c7DWy55VNIPKF-lg78gWuN9RshlRb0FmEzoEOqAp_7Jvg8PfAcWezrzjl_sYLx3_Y0NJoGzVs1G4xlFu0swQ49Ier_F3UES9gte3JTNCoDK9Rl/s1600/GM2.png" height="203" width="400" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Bloomberg, ResearchAhead</span></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB">These factors are all still in existence and hence this should be seen as the main reason why the environment of
low macro-economic volatility has re-established itself. What is more though, nowadays
there is one additional element at play as a means to prevent another financial
crisis: the increased usage of macro-prudential policies. The aim of such
policies is to manage systemic risks within the banking sector as well as the broader
economy. It thereby should lower the probability of another devastating
financial crisis. Mostly, it is expected to do this via preventing the build-up
of new excesses in certain regions or sectors. As an example, facing a
credit-fuelled house price surge, the macro-prudential regulator would for
example demand higher capital buffers or reduce the maximum allowed loan-to-value
ratio. This should ease rampant credit growth and should thereby stabilise the
housing market. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB">For overall economic growth it
means that it should be somewhat lower than would otherwise be the case. Furthermore,
the central bank does not need to take care of regional or sectoral excesses. Combined
with a more subdued growth rebound it can refrain from hiking rates for longer.
Or put differently, the central bank does not need to raise rates in order to
break the neck of a housing boom (and thereby killing the economy) but can instead
focus on the overall economic developments. In this case, it should also take
longer for inflationary pressures to materialise amid an overall less
pronounced growth recovery. On the other side, if a downturn hits, it should
also be milder and shorter as the previous excesses were smaller and there are
more instruments available (easier capital rules, lending standards) to
counteract the downturn than was the case in earlier business cycles. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB">As a result, the introduction
of macro-prudential policies should help to lower macro-economic volatility
further and serves as a partial substitute for traditional monetary policy.
This can be seen with the example of Switzerland. The Swiss National Bank
introduced a floor in the EURCHF rate in 2011 in order to prevent a strong
currency from driving the economy into a deflationary recession. However, doing
so meant giving up implementing an independent monetary policy. Effectively, the
SNB can not hike rates for as long as the ECB does not hike rates or it needs to give up on its exchange rate target. The
resulting loose monetary policy environment (zero rates and aggressive balance
sheet lengthening) provided fuel to an already existing housing market upturn.
In order to slow down the housing market, the Swiss government has – on the
request from the SNB – increased banks' counter-cyclical capital buffers for
mortgages for the second time in January this year. This measure should promote
a less loose environment in the mortgage market while at the same time allows
the SNB to conduct its easy monetary policy for the broader economy for longer. </span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB">For
markets, the lower macro-economic volatility should be mirrored in lower
financial market volatility across asset classes. Moreover, the volatility of central bank rates
should drop even more as in those currency areas where macro-prudential
policies play a more important role, policy rates need to be changed by less. This
also means that respective central banks can wait longer before they revert to
rate hikes</span>.This all argues in favour of carry and of less liquid products across financial markets as well as for an environment of lower risk premia and flatter curves than at similar stages during previous business cycles. </span></span></div>
<br /></div>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-28755661618417527062014-03-20T12:13:00.001+01:002014-03-20T12:13:29.609+01:00EM slowdown should not threaten European and US recoveryCurrencies of non-commodity producing developed economies appreciated significantly over the
past twelve months. Moreover, growth has been weakening in a large number of
emerging markets. Does this threaten the growth recovery underway in Europe and
the US? I do not think so as the upward pressure on EUR, GBP and USD results
from capital flowing back into these areas, providing for looser monetary
conditions which works against the fx-induced monetary tightening. Moreover,
while exports going into EMs and commodity producers should be negatively
affected, the European economies are mostly dependent on each other and therefore
might find themselves in a mutually reinforcing recovery.<br />
<br />
During the past
decade, emerging markets have grown strongly and a lot of capital has flown
into the emerging markets world. Additionally, as EM have a high commodity
intensity of growth, the demand for commodities increased significantly. Coupled
with low growth in commodity supply, this lead to the commodities super-cycle.
However, higher commodity prices put upward pressure on European (ex Norway)
and US inflation and downward pressure on growth. Thereby, it worsened the debt
crisis of recent years and lead to more capital flowing out of Europe/the US
into EMs and commodity producers. Last year, however, this process went into
reverse. The fundamental environment for a large number of Emerging Markets and
commodity producing economies has been deteriorating amid the build up in
(private sector) indebtedness, loss of competitiveness, rising current account
deficits/falling surpluses and growing political risks. The fundamental
supply-demand balance for commodities has deteriorated as well amid higher
supply growth on the back of the previous rise in investment and lower demand
growth due to weaker growth in the commodity intensive emerging markets. On the
other side, systemic risks in the Eurozone have receded, real growth in Europe
and the US is slowly rising and QE draws to an end, leading to upward pressure
on UST, Gilt and to a lesser extent Bund yields. <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><br />
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">Developed markets and commodities: From a vicious to a virtuous cycle </span></span></div>
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<![endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: DE;"></span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"> Source: ResearchAhead</span></span></span><br />
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In turn, capital
has started to flow back out of EMs and commodity producers into Europe and the
US, leading to strong upward pressure on currencies such as EUR, GBP and USD. Thereby,
the previous vicious cycle has given way to a virtuous cycle. Commodity prices
have stopped rising/been dropping. This puts downward pressure on inflation but
supports real growth. This in turn, eases the debt crisis and helps to improve
fiscal budgets. This process has much further to run and the trends of recent
quarters where DM assets outperform vs. EM assets - with EUR, GBP, USD
appreciation vs. a broad basket of currencies, EM vs. DM spread widening and DM
equity market outperformance – can continue. While the appreciation in EUR, GBP
and USD acts to tighten monetary conditions, it also props up asset prices and
provides for an improvement in financing conditions – especially in the
Eurozone periphery – which constitutes a loosening of monetary conditions. Just as EM equity markets dropped significantly in
recent months, DM equity markets moved higher. Furthermore, as the chart below shows, sovereign CDS in
Europe and the US fell sharply while sovereign CDS in emerging markets rose
significantly. <br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 5pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">12m change in 5-year sovereign CDS</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span lang="EN-GB">Source: Bloomberg</span></span><br />
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Moreover, the export environment should improve despite the stronger
Euro and a more challenging environment for emerging markets and some commodity
producers. The table below shows exports in % of GDP for Eurozone countries. The
first row shows exports going to other Eurozone countries, the UK, Switzerland,
Sweden, Denmark (i.e. Western Europe ex Norway) and the US. The second row contains
exports relative to GDP going to Emerging and Developing countries. The final
row shows the ratio of the two numbers. Exports to Western Europe and the US
far outweigh those going into the EM world. The Euro did not appreciate much
vs. these currencies (it even depreciated slightly vs. CHF and GBP). Only in
the case of the USD has it appreciated meaningfully over the past year. However,
with a rise of approx. 6% this should not be enough to negate rising demand on
the back of higher US growth. In turn, export demand for Eurozone countries
(and the UK) should improve given that they are mostly dependent on each other,
thereby mutually reinforcing their cyclical upswing!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>
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D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-56280795890972982702013-12-13T10:35:00.001+01:002013-12-13T10:35:49.392+01:00Economies & Markets in 2014: Welcome to the New Age<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This is a shortened version of my macro and markets outlook for 2014.</span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">2013 was marked by a reduction in systemic
risks in the Eurozone, falling inflation and gradually improving growth at low
levels in Europe and the US. As we move into 2014, systemic risks promise to
remain low, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">real growth is set to
increase substantially</b> and inflation should bottom out. While fiscal policy
was very restrictive in recent years – thereby forcing monetary policy to adopt
an increasingly accommodative stance - it will become much less so in the
quarters ahead. This will force some of the major <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">central banks</b> to <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">limit their
monetary accommodation</b>. As European and US growth improve and the Fed winds
down its asset purchase programmes, the first half of next year promises to see
a continuation of recent trends – bear-steepening of US, UK and EUR curves with
an outperformance of the Eurozone and an ongoing tightening in Eurozone
sovereign bond spreads. However, significant above-trend growth, slowly rising
core inflation and wage pressures on the back of falling unemployment will push
the US Fed into further action towards the end of the year. In line with the
FOMC’s forward guidance, rate hikes will not yet be on the agenda but an <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">outright reduction in USD liquidity</b>
will become increasingly likely via the introduction of reverse repo
operations. This, however, promises to cause a renewed wave of selling across
Emerging Markets and in commodity dependent assets and currencies while also
propelling risk aversion and realized volatility higher across developed
markets. The upward pressure on EUR, USD and GBP vs. a broad basket of
currencies should be maintained in 2014 but as the year progresses, the USD
should increasingly become the outperformer within this group. </span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Short UST, Gilts, Bunds and JGBs. US-EUR and UK-EUR spread wideners.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Long break-even wideners.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Overweight higher-yielding semi-core and peripheral bonds.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Long USD, GBP and EUR vs. a broad basket of EM and DM currencies. Short CAD, NOK, AUD & JPY.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The second half is likely to be dominated by increasing prospects of monetary tightening in the US and the UK. </span>
</li>
</ul>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-18688435129300384882013-10-30T16:46:00.000+01:002013-10-30T16:56:33.196+01:00Low, lower, Eurozone inflationI have been arguing for several years now that medium term inflation pressures in the Eurozone are very low. Furthermore, as written in spring this year (see: <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2013/04/rising-deflation-risks-in-eurozone.html" target="_blank">Rising deflation risks in the Eurozone</a> dated April 16), I was looking for inflation to drop to 1% and even below. The latest news on the inflation front confirm this assessment. Today, Spanish HICP fell to a level of only 0.1% yoy in October (vs. estimates of a fall from 0.5% to 0.4%). German inflation dropped from 1.6% to 1.3% in October (vs. expectations of a 1.5% reading). Hence, Eurozone HICP is also likely to fall further. In September headline inflation fell to 1.1% and core inflation to 1.0%, materially below the ECB's "below but close to 2%" target.<br />
Over the past years, inflation in the Eurozone was largely driven by higher commodity prices (amplified by a weaker Euro during the sovereign debt crisis) as well as due to significant fiscal tightening (via higher consumption taxes and higher prices for administered goods and services). The chart below shows the development of various inflation measures. The difference between headline inflation (in blue) and core inflation (in black) is down to the swings in commodity prices. As major central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE) slashed rates to 0% and flooded the market with an unprecedented amount of liquidity to counteract the debt crisis and economic weakness, commodity prices shot higher, leading to upward pressure on headline inflation rates. Now, however, the commodity super cycle has ended (see for example my <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2013/05/strategy-presentation-low-systemic.html" target="_blank">strategy presentation</a> from May) amid a fundamental shift in the supply-demand balance and weaker growth across a large number of emerging market economies. The shift in the commodities market environment has been amplified by the Fed's tapering talk in spring/summer and by improving growth prospects in Europe and the US as this led to a shift of capital out of commodities back into US and European equities.<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Eurozone inflation developments </b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVaMW5MjKVGSf8e1Lxksw4LCFS_otm5ZsiUCRwLIxczpNXDueBd3Uav7MFpNFP_3TSZxMepEuNgtVXO-F6yKYFwgj4I_62IUFDU_qikjj_zjyqAGP95o0J48xCI2zCGPpTa27os2yC5ePX/s1600/ChartBlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVaMW5MjKVGSf8e1Lxksw4LCFS_otm5ZsiUCRwLIxczpNXDueBd3Uav7MFpNFP_3TSZxMepEuNgtVXO-F6yKYFwgj4I_62IUFDU_qikjj_zjyqAGP95o0J48xCI2zCGPpTa27os2yC5ePX/s400/ChartBlog.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Eurostat, ResearchAhead</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
What is more, a large part of core inflation during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis (i.e. since late 2010/the beginning of 2011) was down to fiscal tightening measures. This can be seen in the difference between core inflation and the core measures ex admin prices (in red) and the core HICP constant taxes ex admin prices (in green). These inflation measures try to deduct the impact of higher consumption taxes and higher prices for administered goods and services from the core inflation measure (as these higher prices were due to the fiscal tightening). As can be seen, this adjusted measure has been running below 1% for quite some time and stands currently at 0.7%, i.e. still significantly below core inflation. As additional fiscal tightening measures become less pronounced, this difference should fall further. Moreover, the level of excess capacity in the Eurozone remains at a record high, monetary and credit dynamics are very subdued and the high level of the Euro decreases prices for imported goods & services. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
So far, the record low in Eurozone core inflation was reached at 0.8% in Jan/Feb 2010. However, at that time, the enacted strong monetary and fiscal easing measures lead the Eurozone and the global economy into a fast recovery following the deep recession after the Lehman bankruptcy. The Eurozone composite PMI stood at 53.7 in February, rising to 57.3 in April. Furthermore, commodity prices were rising sharply, leading to rising inflation pressures. Now, however, the composite PMI stands at 51.5, suggesting that Eurozone growth remains below trend for longer and hence excess capacity is unlikely to shrink while commodity prices have been moving sideways (energy) to lower (agriculture). Hence, the low point in Eurozone inflation should not yet have been reached and core inflation is likely to hit a new record low in the months ahead. The ECB will have to take note of these developments. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-66640116736872210572013-08-23T09:51:00.002+02:002013-08-23T09:51:41.399+02:00Developed markets growth improvement vs. busting EM bubbleI have been looking for higher safe yields in Europe and the US for some time now and also expected a growth improvement of net-commodity consuming developed markets vs. the rest of the world. In early July I concluded (see: <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2013/07/h213-limited-systemic-risks-low.html" target="_blank">H213: Limited systemic risks, low inflation & relative DM vs. EM growth improvement)</a>: "<i>Those countries and markets which have been supported heavily by capital flowing out
of the US and Europe (i.e. commodities, EMs) are most at risk of a significant underperformance
as the combination of weakening fundamentals and the potential for a tighter
monetary environment amid capital outflows demand its toll. On the other side,
US, Europe and Japan should see a supportive mix of improving growth and an
ongoing growth supportive monetary environment. In turn, risky assets and
currencies of the EM/commodity producing world should continue to be sold on
uptics whereas developed markets’ risky assets as well as US/European fx should
be bought on dips. However, safe nominal and real yields have seen their lows
and moved back on a rising path, especially in the US. "</i><br />
This conclusion remains fully valid and the current market movements (higher nominal yields, higher risky asset prices and higher currencies in the Eurozone, UK and the US on the one side, lower currencies and risky asset prices in EM and commodity producing countries on the other) promise to run significantly further.<br />
<br />
To escape the US Great Recession and the sovereign
debt crisis in Europe, capital has flown into emerging markets and commodity
producing countries in previous years. It helped fuel growth, inflation and
indebtedness and thereby lead to worsening fundamentals in the capital receiving
countries. As systemic Eurozone risks have abated, growth in Europe and the US is
improving and real yields are rising, this capital is now flowing back, exposing an environment of worsened fundamentals in the EM/Commodity producing countries.<br />
Even though their currencies are plummeting, the
capital outflow constitutes a net monetary tightening in the affected emerging
economies as credit availability shrinks and rates are rising. Moreover,
several emerging markets face the problem that a lower external value of their
currencies translates mainly into higher inflation and not higher external competitiveness.
In order to prevent further capital outflows, some countries have already
reverted to rate hikes (thereby further tightening monetary conditions) and/or
started to buy their own currency with the help of foreign reserves (which,
however, tends to reduce liquidity in the domestic financial system). Also the
currencies of developed market commodity producers (i.e. NOK, AUD, CAD) continue
to be at risk. These countries see a deterioration of their fundamental outlook
amid the end of the commodities super cycle. Furthermore, they have been at the
receiving end of large sums of capital flowing out of the Eurozone and the US
as well which now might increasingly flow back. Finally, they were also
beneficiaries as central banks increasingly diversified their reserve
currencies over the past years. As reserve accumulation goes into reverse, though,
this support evaporates. Hence also in this case fundamentals suggest a
deteriorating environment. The difference to emerging markets is that the
respective central banks tend to accept the lower external value of the
currency and can even react with rate cuts as for example in the case of
Australia. As a result, instead of performing pro-cyclical policies into the
slowdown as in a number of emerging markets, they have the ability to enact
counter-cyclical measures. Nonetheless, as growth is weakening and capital is
flowing out, there is more currency weakness in store. <br />
For the Eurozone, the UK and the US the
reversal of capital flows constitutes monetary easing and should lead to an
improvement in credit availability over the medium term. Therefore it
counteracts the growth negative effects from higher yields and higher
trade-weighted exchange rates. In turn, the trends of higher yields and
stronger currencies promise to run further on a strategic time
horizon (i.e. on a 6-9m view to Q1-Q2 2014) and the respective strategic positioning
(shorts in safe bonds, longs in EUR,GBP,USD) should be maintained. Spreads of higher-yielding semi-cores and peripheral bonds
should see a sideways to tighter trading environment given that higher growth improves
their creditworthiness amid a better outlook for the debt-GDP trajectory.<br />
However, the dislocations in emerging
financial markets have the potential (via weaker growth and weaker currencies) to
lead to lower export demand for the developed markets and might in conjunction
with fears surrounding the Fed’s tapering temporarily lead to higher risk
aversion. Within fixed income, this could potentially have the largest effects
on corporate bonds. For one, a large number of corporates has profited
significantly from the booming emerging and commodity producing countries. Furthermore,
corporate bonds in general have been in good demand over the past years as a
means to escape the sovereign debt crisis. Hence, risks are for a partial
reversal of these flows and sovereign bonds should be preferred to corporate bonds. D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-74717885930226837992013-07-12T09:46:00.000+02:002013-07-12T10:30:39.729+02:00H213: Limited systemic risks, low inflation & relative DM vs. EM growth improvementMy outlook and asset allocation for H2 2013 remain mostly unchanged (see also my strategy presentation from May <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2013/05/strategy-presentation-low-systemic.html" target="_blank">Low systemic risks, low inflation and improving real growth</a>): Systemic risks - which emanated mainly from the Eurozone - remain limited, inflation will be low for longer while real growth in developed markets can improve over the next quarters. On the other side, the outlook for several important emerging markets as well as commodity producing economies has been deteriorating.<br />
<br />
The US economy has successfully averted the so-called
fiscal cliff and following a period of subdued dynamic, growth should
reaccelerate into year end. For one, the negative effects of the fiscal
tightening enacted earlier this year should slowly fade while the housing
market has turned around, the output of oil & gas is on a structural upward
trend and the combination of an improving labour market, rising real wages and
high pent up demand for consumer durables should support
consumption growth. Furthermore, the monetary transmission mechanism in the US
has been restored suggesting that the previously enacted monetary easing is
increasingly hitting the real economy. As a result, the US Fed will start
to taper its asset purchases in October and is likely to start rising rates in Q4
2014.<br />
In the Eurozone, the economy remains mired in a mild
recession. However, growth should gradually move into positive territory during
the current half of 2013 and improve further going into 2014 even though it
will remain below trend. For one, the negative growth effects from rising energy prices
should fade while the negative growth effects from a restrictive fiscal policy
environment should slowly become lower. On
the other side, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece have largely restored cost
competitiveness and as a result the positive growth impact from net exports
should increase. In line with the
ECB’s forward guidance, there is no rate hike on the horizon for a long time
and there remains a substantial probability for another cut in the repo rate,
albeit a cut in the depo rate into negative territory carries a very low
probability only. Furthermore, the ECB is likely to prevent an increase in
EONIA levels and should be expected to counteract a further marked fall in
excess liquidity.<br />
Just as the growth environment in the US, Europe and
also in Japan (amid the massive easing of monetary conditions) improves, it will
become more difficult for a number of emerging market and commodity producing economies. China is actively trying to rebalance its economy, moving growth
away from a credit-fuelled and resource intensive investment boom towards more
consumption/services leading to significantly lower growth in the process. Moreover,
a large number of emerging markets have seen a deterioration in their
fundamental environment over the past years just as a constant stream of
capital flowed from Europe and the US into their economies. Private sector
credit growth has been rampant and financing conditions might become
increasingly restrictive in an environment where the Fed ends its USD glut. In
turn, risks will be rising over the course of 2014 that several EM central
banks will have to start selling their foreign currency reserves in order to
support its currency and domestic financial markets.<br />
Those countries and markets which have been supported heavily by capital flowing out
of the US and Europe (i.e. commodities, EMs) are most at risk of a significant underperformance
as the combination of weakening fundamentals and the potential for a tighter
monetary environment amid capital outflows demand its toll. On the other side,
US, Europe and Japan should see a supportive mix of improving growth and an
ongoing growth supportive monetary environment. In turn, risky assets and
currencies of the EM/commodity producing world should continue to be sold on
uptics whereas developed markets’ risky assets as well as US/European fx should
be bought on dips. However, safe nominal and real yields have seen their lows
and moved back on a rising path, especially in the US. D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-54535830314991520362013-05-14T12:42:00.000+02:002013-05-14T12:42:38.821+02:00Strategy presentation: Low systemic risks, low inflation & improving real growthI have published a new strategy presentation <b>Low systemic risks, low inflation & improving real growth</b>.
Here are the key points:<br />
<br />
A) <b>Is the commodities super cylce over?</b><br />
Amid the sharp surge in commodity prices over the past ten years, investment into commodities
(commodity production and physical/paper commodity holdings) have surged. Now,
physical supply is increasing at a faster rate than before. Moreover, amid the
subdued commodity price performance of the past two years and improving
prospects for equities, investors have started to shift out of cash and
commodities into equities (aka "the Great Rotation"). Moroever, Chinese growth
has cooled and the Chinese growth mixed has become more dependent on services
growth than before and hence less resource intensive. The result is lower demand
growth. The effect for the net-commodity consuming countries (Europe ex Norway,
Asia ex Malaysia/Indonesia, US) constitute a positive supply shock, i.e. a
reduction in inflation and a support for real growth. On the other side,
commodity producers should see slower growth.<br />
<br />
B) <b>US economy to move back on a self-sustainable growth path</b><br />
The longer-term
outlook for the US economy has become increasingly more favourable. The
structural rise in the output of oil & gas, the sharp reduction in household
debt service ratios, the improvement in bank balance sheets, the restoration of
the monetary transmission mechanism, the recovery in the housing market, an
increasing level of pent up demand (business investment & household durable
goods) combined with a slow recovery in the employment market and a slow rise in
real earnings render the medium-to-long-term growth outlook very favourable. As
growth improves, the fiscal deficit will fall markedly further. Moreover, amid
the rise in oil & gas output, the current account deficit can decrease
slightly further. The current spring soft patch - caused by fiscal tightening
and still wrong seasonal adjustments - will be over soon. Inflation does not
pose a significant problem. Core inflation rates can move slowly higher again
over the medium term. However, as the Fed will likely start to scale back its
asset purchases probably in Q4, the pressure on the USD should be for higher
levels but commodities should suffer further. Hence, headline inflation rates
should remain relatively subdued.<br />
<br />
C) <b>Eurozone growth improvement ahead</b><br />
Eurozone growth
expectations have been lowered further. However, the growth outlook is starting
to improve. Austerity measures have reduced growth by more than 1% in 2011 and
2012 but should the negative effects should weaken over the next quarters as
austerity policies are weakened (Italy) and stretched out over a longer-term
time scale (France, Spain, Netherlands). Furthermore, energy prices have reduced
growth by 0.5% each year since 2010 but this effect should vanish
completely. Spain, Greece, Ireland & Portugal have made substantial progress
in restoring their competitiveness. Hence, export growth should increase and the
adjustment recessions should weaken. Amid the substantial reduction in bond
yields across the Eurozone, monetary accommodation has been increasing and with
the usual lags should become more growth supportive. From a more short term
perspective, the long and harsh winter has weakened the usual spring upswing in
March and up to mid April. But as winter has finally gone, the spring upswing
should gather steam. Finally, with the formation of a government in Italy, the
uncertainty has been reduced and should help the Italian economy to recover. As
a result, the Eurozone growth can improve slowly and start to surprise
positively over the next few months vs. the lowered
expectations.
Inflation risks in
the Eurozone remain low as core inflation is being held back by weak credit
growth and a very high level of unused capacitiy while easing commodity prices
are exerting downward pressure on headline rates as well.<br />
The ECB will likely
not cut rates any further but focus on steps to kick-start an ABS market for SME
loans. This would help the banking sector, however, it will be a slow process
only.<br />
For the sovereigns,
debt sustainability has been increasing amid the sharp reduction in sovereign
bond yields and the slow improvement in primary balances. Furthermore, they have
been shifting banking sector credit risks back onto banking creditors. Systemic
risks remain in the Eurozone remain moderate.<br />
<br />
D) <b>Strategic Views & Trades</b> <br />
<ul>
<li>The
bull market in “safe” bonds (aka Bunds,
UST) has ended. On a 6m horizon, Bund yields should trade back to the upper end
of the trading range of the past 12 months, more substantial upside in UST
yields. </li>
<li>Previous periods of
rising safe yields were driven by additional aggressive central bank easing (QE
by the US, LTRO/OMT by the ECB) or expectations of central bank tightening (as
at the start of this year where markets priced a significant monetary tightening
amid early LTRO pre-payments) the next few months will likely
be driven by an improvement in the real growth environment.
Real yields should be rising and safe curves
should steepen </li>
<li>The environment
for carry products in the Eurozone remains favourable as monetary policy remains
supportive, the growth improvement improves debt sustainability and the need to
generate carry & roll-down remains strong spreads for higher-yielding semi-cores
peripherals can narrow further.</li>
<li>Short Bunds,
short UST, UST-Bund spread wideners, short German and French inflation linkers,
Bund and OIS curve steepeners, semi-core Bund spread tighteners, outright longs
in peripheral bonds (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece). Prefer periphery
vs. similar yielding financials. </li>
<li>Asset Allocation:
overweight equity (from net-commodity consuming countries & long cyclicals);
small overweight in bonds (amid overweight in carry products, but underweight in
safe assets); underweight commodities & cash; overweight EUR & USD;
underweight JPY & commodity fx</li>
</ul>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-44266081377049182192013-05-08T16:34:00.000+02:002013-05-08T16:34:50.756+02:00Growth rebound in the Eurozone about to get started<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">I think that there is a good
case to be made that safe yields – especially for German Bunds - are past their
lows for the year and I shift my tactical stance from neutral to moderately
bearish/selling on uptics with a horizon of one month while I maintain my
bearish view for Bund and UST with a view to year-end. </span>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">First, the
ECB has now delivered what I expect is the final rate cut. I do not think that
another rate cut is upcoming, especially not for the deposit rate. A negative
deposit rate is a tool to lower the level of excess liquidity in the financial
system (as no one wants to pay for depositing cash with the central bank) and
hence usually has been used to prevent further money inflows in a period of a
strongly rising exchange rate (i.e. Denmark). However, the ECB does not really
want excess liquidity to drop significantly further in the near term, hence, a
negative deposit rate would not serve their purpose. More important are steps to
kick-start an ABS market for SME loans. As ECB president Draghi stated at the
press conference last week, the ECB is working together with the EIB on such a
plan and the German daily “Die Welt” reported that the ECB is thinking about
implementing a buying programme for such ABS (however, before they are able to
buy SME ABS, there needs to be such a market). Increasing issuance of
securitised SME loans would help banks to lower financing costs and more
importantly should also free up capital. Hence, it would ease the deleveraging
process/free up capacity for new loans and thereby should lower rates for SME
loans and improve their availability. Clearly, though, such a process takes a
long time. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">What is
more, though, I think the Eurozone economy is about to turn the corner with
growth improving markedly from here onwards, thereby surprising reduced
expectations. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-font-family: +mn-ea; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt;">Unit
labour costs (1999=100, left)<span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> T</span>rade balance in % of GDP (right)</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><img alt="" height="182" 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" width="400" /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Source:
Eurostat</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Form a
longer-term perspective, an increasing number of peripheral countries have
significantly improved their competitiveness. Unit labour costs in Ireland,
Spain, Greece & Portugal have come down significantly over the past two
years and the trade balances have moved from significant deficit into surplus.
Amid improved competitiveness, the positive impact from rising export demand
should therefore increase over the next few quarters especially given a
generally more favourable global growth backdrop. Additionally, the negative
impact provided by the austerity measures should be about to get lower from here
onwards. From 2010 to 2012 the cyclically adjusted primary balance in the
Eurozone has moved from a deficit of 2.4% to a surplus of 0.3% according to the
IMF and is expected to reach 1.4% this year. Hence, fiscal policy acted as a
drag on growth to the tune of more than 1% per year. However, the political
support for further austerity measures has been weakened and France and Spain is
about to receive two more years and the Netherlands one year to fulfil their
budget objectives. As the French finance minister has indicated, France is
likely to increase privatisation rather than taxes/or cut spending further.
Moreover, in the case of Italy, the new government is also unlikely to drive
austerity any further (and clearly Italy with a surplus of 2.3% in its primary
balance in 2012 does not need to save more). The net result is that the negative
effect from fiscal policy is likely to drop significantly from here onwards,
helping growth to recover. Furthermore, the rise in oil prices has been a
significant drag for the Eurozone economy as well. 2012 net imports of mineral
fuels increased by approx. EUR 150bn compared to 2009. This is equal to 1.5% of
GDP and hence rising energy prices were a drag on growth of approx. 0.5% per
year in 2010, 2011 and 2012. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-line-break-override: restrictions; punctuation-wrap: simple; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-font-family: +mn-ea; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt;">Eurozone
net imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials in EUR bn </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<br /></div>
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<img alt="" height="245" src="data:image/png;base64,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" width="400" /></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Source:
Eurostat</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">However,
oil prices in Euro seem to have peaked in the summer of last year and have since
lost more than 10% with Brent crude in Euro down 8% over the past three months.
Furthermore, agricultural prices also acted as a significant drag on growth,
especially in 2010 but also since the summer of last year when they spiked by
30% within a matter of weeks (measured by the S&P Agriculture Index in
Euros). By now, however, agricultural prices have given up all of their gains
from last summer again. The effect is that the negative drag on growth from high
commodity prices which was apparent over the past three years should fade
completely over the next few months, barring another sharp spike in prices.
</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Additionally,
bond yields – especially for the higher yielding semi-core and the peripheral
issuers – have dropped sharply over the past months. This increases monetary
accommodation in the semi-core and reduces monetary restrictiveness in the
periphery and should – with the usual lags – also start to have positive growth
effects. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Finally,
there are also three factors which acted to temporarily restrain growth over the
past months but have gone away by now. One was the long and harsh winter which
lasted until almost the middle of April. This meant that the usual seasonal
spring upswing started later/was weaker during March and early April. However,
as winter has finally gone, the spring upswing<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>should materialize and data referring to late April/May should be
positively affected. This should be seen as one factor which held back
construction activity in Germany which dropped by 4.5% in March. Additionally,
Italian growth should start to surprise positively. The uncertainty ahead of the
election and clearly following the election as no government was formed acted to
depress economic activity. Now, however, as a government has been formed this
should pass again. Furthermore, as already mentioned, Italy does not need to
save more and the new government seems to weaken the austerity efforts. As this
happens growth should improve as well. Finally, uncertainty with respect to
contagion from the deposit levy in Cyprus should have vanished by now.
</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Hence, I
expect Eurozone growth to improve form here onwards over the next few quarters.
The adjustment recessions in the periphery should weaken while Italy should move
back to a positive growth environment and Germany should move back to slightly
above trend growth as domestic demand improves again. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">On a
different note, the outlook for inflation continues to be very favourable. The
high level of excess capacity should continue to exert downward pressure on core
inflation while the lower level of commodity prices will also pressure headline
inflation towards 1%. Hence, nominal growth should continue to be low for the
time being. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">For the US
I remain very positive concerning the medium & long-term growth outlook.
Private sector deleveraging should be almost over, the monetary transmission
mechanism has been restored (leading to an easier monetary environment), the
housing market has bottomed and oil & gas output is on a structural upward
trend. However, data for the next few weeks might still be moderately weak (amid
the fiscal easing and seasonal adjustment effects), but should start to surprise
positively again from approx. June onwards. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">All in
all, I see increasing evidence that especially Bund yields have their lows
behind them and from a tactic perspective I switch from a neutral to a moderate
bearish bias. However, I do not expect significant yield increases already over
the next few weeks.. Rather from summer onwards the picture should become more
Bund bearish, in line with higher UST yields. Hence, positions should only be
set up on uptics and be kept small for the time being. In conditional space 1:2
put spreads with the help of July options on the Bund future look attractive or
alternatively selling atm calls and otm puts. I am also of the opinion that
outright short positions in inflation linked Bunds are attractive and real
yields should be rising over the next few months as growth improves but
inflation can drop further. However, carry for inflation linkers during the
current month is large before it turns negative thereafter. Hence, slowly
entering shorts over the next two weeks seems advisable in order to reduce the
impact of carry on performance. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Yield and
spread volatility should remain moderate though as systemic risks remain
moderate as well. The higher-yielding semi-core markets (i.e. Belgium and
France) remain attractive for outright longs, however, a larger share of
outright longs should be shifted into spread longs vs. Germany in order to
reduce duration. Selling calls on the Bund future vs. long positions in pick-up
products is also an attractive way to reduce “safe” duration. Buying on dips in
the periphery (i.e. Ireland, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal) remains attractive.
Here the focus can be kept on outright long positions.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">For the fx
markets I still remain of the opinion that the Euro has more upside left over
the next few weeks vs. a broad basket of currencies (including the USD and JPY).
I do think that the commodity currencies have started a secular downtrend. The
USD should move on a long-term upward trend from summer onwards. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-22957444940588753162013-04-23T09:53:00.002+02:002013-04-23T09:53:58.336+02:00What is happening with Germany?Long-time readers will know that I have held an upbeat view with respect to Germany for a long time due to a number of reasons. One of the reasons has been the easy monetary environment provided by record low real yields (ongoing) as well as by the weak exchange rate. More important for Germany than the level of the trade-weighted Euro is the level of the EURJPY cross rate even though Germany does not have strong direct trade relationships with Japan. However, Germany and Japan are key competitors in the global markets for items such as cars, machines or chemicals. The collapse of EURJPY since the outburst of the financial crisis in 2008 has helped German exporters gain market share, especially in Asian markets, at the expense of their Japanese counterparts. Following the radical easing in monetary policy by the BoJ, EURJPY has shot upwards by approx. 30% within a matter of a few months.<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
EURJPY and EUR trade-weighted index </div>
<img alt="" height="213" 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" width="400" /><br />
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Bloomberg </span></div>
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This has important implications, not only for the German economy but also for the Eurozone overall:<br />
a) The sharp rise in EURJPY constitutes a net tightening the monetary environment for Germany. German exporters are likely to face a more challenging export environment, especially in Asian markets. This will render the current economic upswing softer than would be the case otherwise.<br />
b) The sharp rise in EURJPY does not have significant tightening effects on the other Eurozone economies, most notably France and the periphery. These economies compete to a much lower extent with Japanese exporters in world markets and hence a higher EURJPY is no issue. Rather, the likely flow of capital out of Japan (as the BoJ reduces the amount of JGBs available for private investors and hence cash needs to be invested elsewhere, likely also in Eurozone bond markets) helps to depress the yields of semi-core and peripheral sovereign bonds. Hence, the monetary environment in the periphery/semi-core gets more accommodative.<br />
c) A weaker-than-expected state of the German economy increases the chances of further easing steps by the ECB (repo rate cut, moving into the direction of forward guidance, unconventional steps to promote the flow of credit to SMEs), supporting growth in the periphery via lower yields and a lower Euro (on a trade-weighted basis). <br />
<br />
Overall, the German economy should see a growth recovery but a slower one than would have been the case otherwise whereas the support provided by the monetary environment for the periphery has been increasing and will increase further. As a result, growth differences between various Eurozone countries should become less pronounced. D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-57438225879718484332013-04-16T10:45:00.001+02:002013-04-16T10:45:24.910+02:00Rising deflation risks in the EurozoneI argued in November (see: <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2012/11/no-inflation-pressures-in-eurozone.html" target="_blank">No inflation pressures in the Eurozone</a>) that inflation fears for the Eurozone are unfounded and rather deflationary risks in the periphery are significant. In the meantime headline and core inflation rates have fallen below the 2% target level. However, inflation pressures have continued to ease and inflation rates should be expected to fall markedly further to below 1% during summer.<br />
<br />
The chart below shows the development of various inflation measures for the Eurozone. Headline and core inflation are well known. However, I also calculated a core measure ex administered goods and services. The price changes for administered goods & services are to a large extent directed by the sovereigns and amid the massive fiscal tightening in a large number of countries there has been significant upward pressure on the administered goods prices. Furthermore, I try to deduct also the effects of changes of consumption taxes on prices (Eurostat publishes a constant tax rate HICP). The green line shows this adjusted core inflation measure (i.e. a measure of inflation stripped off the effects of energy&food prices as well as the direct impact of fiscal tightening). This inflation measure stood at 0.4% in January. At that time, core inflation was at 1.3%. Hence, two-thirds of core inflation stemmed from higher prices for administered goods & services as well as higher consumption taxes. On a country level Spain is in outright deflation and France is at 0% inflation according to this measure. <br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
Inflation developments in the Eurozone </div>
<img alt="" height="163" 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" width="400" /><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Eurostat, ResearchAhead</span></div>
<br />
Looking ahead, price pressures should ease markedly further. First, as headline inflation has been running above the core measures, prices for food & energy continued to exert upward pressure on inflation. However, as the chart below shows, Brent crude oil in Euros has already dropped by approx. 15% since early February and from where they stood a year ago. This is the largest yoy drop in oil prices since 2009 (i.e. at the height of the global financial crisis). Following a spike of approx. 40% last summer, also food prices (measured by the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index in Euros) have now turned negative on a yoy basis. As a result, the inflationary impact of food&energy prices should wane over the next months and headline inflation should fall to (and might even undershoot) the core inflation rate.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
Year-over-year %-change of Brent crude oil in Euros</div>
<img alt="" height="182" 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width="400" /> <br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Bloomberg</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
However, besides easing headline pressures, also core inflation rates should continue to fall further. For one, unused capacity in the Eurozone is at extremely high levels. Moreover, monetary developments remain very weak and M3 grew by only 3.1% yoy in February with the 6m annualised increase only at 2.1%. Within M3, M1 continues to be the main driver for M3 growth, while the broader aggregates continue to shrink. The 6m annualised change in M3-M2 has collapsed to -20% in February! As the chart below shows, growth in M3-M2 is a good leading indicator for core inflation and suggests that inflation pressures have been easing further. On the other side, credit growth remains very weak also, falling by 1.2% yoy in February. In Spain, loans for corporates are collapsing by almost 20% yoy and to households by 5%. But also in Italy, loan growth is negative while in Germany it stands at only 0% for corporates and 1% for households.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Growth in M3-M2 suggests easing core inflation pressures </div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Eurostat, ResearchAhead</span></div>
<br />
As a result, the combination of weaker energy and food prices on a year-over-year basis as well as very high unused capacity and very weak money and loan growth all suggest that core and headline inflation rates should fall markedly over the next few months. Sub 1% inflation rates during summer are very likely and should raise deflation fears. D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-62592319484216637982013-02-27T12:00:00.001+01:002013-02-27T12:00:27.578+01:00Investing along national lines should continue to pay off<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">I have a
new blog written in German which focuses on developments in the German economy
as well as German economic policy matters: <a href="http://tanzueberdemabgrund.wordpress.com/">http://tanzueberdemabgrund.wordpress.com/</a>.
</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">I have been
convinced that the multi-year outlook for various developed market economies is
very different and accordingly investing along national lines should pay off. This
has been the case ever since the financial crisis broke out and country views
should continue to guide investment decisions for the next few years. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><b>Germany</b>: I
have been looking for Germany to outperform for quite some time (see for example: <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2009/11/there-is-more-to-celebrate-for-germany.html" target="_blank">There is more to celebrate for Germany</a> dated Nov 10, 2009).
Germany enjoys an easy monetary environment amid record low real yields and a relatively
high credit availability. Furthermore, at current exchange rate levels, German
corporates can continue to gain market share. The fiscal deficit poses no
threat and amid ongoing growth, sovereign debt levels can fall. Hence, no
fiscal tightening is necessary. Additionally, some of the factors which held
growth back since the mid 90s have disappeared or reversed (most notably a
large drop in public sector employment, a sharp<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>drop in construction activity and declining immigration). Public sector
employment has been stabilising, construction has been growing again and
immigration is on the rise. These factors mean that while average/trend growth
was depressed between 1995-2009, it can increase again. Risks for the German
economy stem mainly from the political side. Following the elections in autumn
this year, the political landscape might change towards a less economy friendly
environment (higher taxes, more regulation). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><b>Austria
& Belgium</b>: The financial crisis/ Eurozone sovereign crisis has burdened
Austria & Belgium especially via their banking sectors. However, the stabilisation
in Eastern Europe, the liquidity provision measures by the ECB, most notably
the 3y LTROs, and the systemic backdrop provided by the OMTs and the ESM have
significantly reduced the banking woes in these countries. Furthermore, fiscal
deficits do not pose a threat as the primary balance is close to 0% in both
cases. With the help of the very low sovereign bond yields, fiscal deficits
should remain under control with no further savings measures necessary and
debt-GDP ratios should be able to shrink over the medium term. Hence, Austria
and Belgium profit from an easy monetary and neutral fiscal environment and do
not suffer from significant structural problems. Their sovereign bonds should
do relatively well vs. the rest of the semi-core markets over the longer term. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">However,
there is a large group of Eurozone countries which faces a difficult
longer-term environment. <b>Greece, Portugal and Spain</b> continue to face adjustment
recessions to restore competitiveness and reduce fiscal deficits which will
restrain growth. But also Italy, France and the Netherlands find themselves in
a difficult position. <b>Italy and France</b> need to restore competitiveness of their
industrial sector and both economies suffer from very rigid labour markets. In
the case of Italy, political uncertainty has been rising amid the election
gridlock. As Italy has a large primary surplus, it does not need more fiscal
austerity. Rather structural reforms are needed to restore competitiveness and increase
trend growth. France, on the other side, needs more fiscal savings measure to
bring back the deficit and stabilise debt-GDP ratios. The combination of a lack
of competitiveness for the private sector coupled with significant and ongoing
austerity measures will depress French growth for quite some time. In the case
of the <b>Netherlands</b>, the private sector is over-indebted. Given that unemployment
has risen from 5% in mid 2011 to 7,5% in January this year and as the housing
market has entered a correction (house prices are down by 9,6% yoy in January),
consumer spending should be weak going forward and also hold back business
investment. Furthermore, the state needs to lower its fiscal deficit which will
only aggravate the cyclical downturn. The short-term outlook for Greece
Portugal, Spain, France and the Netherlands is for weak growth, the longer-term
outlook remains most challenging for France (as so far they have not done
anything to restore competitiveness). In the case of Italy, the situation is
uncertain. Amid the political gridlock, political and hence economic uncertainty is rising. This should have a negative effect on business investment and households' consumption of durable goods. On the other side, should a relatively stable government be formed, then Italy could move back to
low but positive growth. Most likely such a new government will not be able to
drive through more austerity measures (which are not necessary anyhow) and
significant structural reforms (which would be necessary). The net effect would be that Italy should be
able to move back to a low but positive growth environment over the course of
this year. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Elsewhere
in Europe, I have been bearish on the UK economy for a long time (see for
example: <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2009/08/revisiting-uk-not-much-good-news.html" target="_blank">Revisiting the UK: not much good news</a> dated August 18, 2009 ). The UK is suffering from the weakness in the financial sector where
its economy is highly exposed. Furthermore, the UK’s oil sector output has
dropped by approx. a quarter over the past four years and is in steady decline.
Aggravated by the government’s savings measures, the economy has been failing
to grow. Furthermore, while the trade-weighted GBP has dropped by approx. 20% since
before the financial crisis, this was not mirrored by an improvement in the
current account. Rather to the contrary, the current account deficit is larger
than before the crisis and the weaker GBP was mostly reflected in higher inflation.
A further easing in the monetary environment will only result in another
weakening of GBP and in the end, the BoE will be almost the only net-buyer of
Gilts. Ultimately, the BoE will be holding these Gilts forever (or cancel them
with the Treasury). Hence, the money created by the quantitative easing
measures should be seen as a permanent increase in base money and is unlikely
to be absorbed again.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In the <b>US</b>,
the situation is very different. While the fiscal deficit is relatively high
and the Fed continues to conduct QE as well, the situation of the economy is
much more favourable. The economy has recovered the lost output from the financial
crisis. A key driver might be the increasing oil & gas output which also
puts significant downward pressure on the current account deficit. Furthermore,
the housing market has turned the corner. If the politicians don’t overdo it
with fiscal tightening, then the economy should soon find its way back into a
higher growth environment which then will also depress the deficit. Hence, I am
optimistic with respect to medium-term outlook for the US economy (though in
the near-term, economic data might disappoint amid the fiscal tightening). </span></div>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-61221851422518459412012-12-19T11:24:00.000+01:002012-12-19T11:24:18.971+01:00Economies & Markets in 2013<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This is a shortened version of my macro and markets outlook for 2013 </span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The so-called developed economies
remain in a <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">low nominal growth
environment</b> where the private sector deleveraging and the over-indebtedness
of the public sector act as structural growth headwinds. Historically, the
public sector successfully deleveraged via default or via a long-lasting
combination of <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">relatively tight fiscal
policy</b> (to slowly move to a primary surplus) with an <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">ultra-loose monetary policy</b> (to get low/negative real yields,
accompanied by other elements of financial repression). Between 2010 to late
2011 the handling of the Eurozone debt crisis (ultra-tight fiscal policy
& limited support from monetary policy, Greek PSI) increased the
probability of the default option and hence meant high and rising systemic
risks. However, in 2012 governments and more importantly the ECB changed the
trajectory via the introduction of OMTs (whereby the ECB has assumed the
lender-of-last-resort role for governments), the start of the ESM and steps
towards a banking union as well as a weakening political support for ever more
fiscal austerity. In turn, the Eurozone has been moving towards the second
option for debt reduction, substantially <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">reducing
systemic risks</b>.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Moreover, also policy makers in the
UK and US have been moving towards a tighter fiscal but looser monetary policy
stance. Finally, following two years of ever weakening growth, the global
economy is in a bottoming process and real growth should increase moderately
going forward, lead by an improvement in Asia ex Japan. On the other side, amid
the ongoing deleveraging and the high level of unused capacity, inflation
pressures in general remain low and hence nominal growth should remain low as
well. </span></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Eurozone real growth should slowly bottom out and move slightly above 1%
in H2 2013. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Germany should lead</b> the
rebound on the back of increased export demand and as record low real rates as
well as rising immigration support the domestic economy. Moreover, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Italy might be surprising</b> with a growth
pick-up. On the other side, due to the ongoing substantial fiscal tightening,
France and Spain should lag in this recovery. Overall, the necessary
rebalancing of the Eurozone economies should take a major step forward. While
real growth should improve, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">inflation
pressures will drop further</b>. Roughly half of the current core inflation
rate of 1.4% stems from the effects of the restrictive fiscal environment. As
the impact of fiscal tightening slowly wears off, inflation rates should fall. Furthermore,
excess capacity remains at very high levels, preventing inflation from rising
even if growth improves. As a result, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">nominal
growth will remain low for a long time</b>. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Global real growth is in a bottoming process and should improve
gradually during 2013. The outlook for inflation is mixed, with falling
inflation pressures in the Eurozone and gradually rising core inflation
pressures in the US while Japanese deflation can abate if the BOJ goes down the
proposed policy route. Furthermore, systemic risks should remain at the now
lower levels. This is an environment where risk appetite can improve,
safe-haven assets should come increasingly under pressure, assets linked to
real growth will be supported but assets linked to inflation should face a
mixed outlook. Importantly, it will mainly be the safe-haven currencies central
banks (BOJ & FED, BOE) which will provide an increasing dose of
monetary accommodation. This should undermine the safe-haven status of their
currencies exactly at a time where risk appetite improves. </span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Sell safe-havens, buy pick-up
& real growth assets and take a mixed approach on inflation: </span></div>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Long carry products</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> with a focus on steep curve areas. Move outright longs in
higher-yielding semi-cores into spread trades vs. Bunds. Outright longs in
peripheral bonds and spread tighteners vs. Bunds across the curve. Start
the year with Bund shorts spread trades and add outright shorts as the
year progresses. </span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Short safe-haven
currencies</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"> (JPY, USD, GBP). <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Long growth currencies</b> & Euro.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Outright <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">shorts in
safe-haven bonds, mostly from safe-haven currencies</b> - i.e. USTs, JGBs
- but also to a lesser extent Bunds.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Safe-haven curve
steepeners & credit curve flatteners</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">. </span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Short inflation protection in the Eurozone vs. long inflation
protection in the US & Japan.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-83920086367251228362012-11-30T14:41:00.001+01:002012-11-30T14:41:16.193+01:00Low systemic risks & low nominal growth<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><span class="485561810-30112012"></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><span class="485561810-30112012"></span></span> </div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="485561810-30112012">I have published a
short presentation <a href="http://researchahead.de/app/download/5792584785/Strategy_November12.pdf" target="_blank">"Low systemic risks & low nominal growth</a>". This is a brief update to my strategy presentation from August
"<a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2012/08/life-in-negative-real-yield-environment.html" target="_blank"><strong>Life in a negative real yield environment</strong></a>".</span></span><br />
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="485561810-30112012"> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="485561810-30112012">There are three key
points I want to make which I think so far have gone
underrepresented:</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="485561810-30112012">1. Inflation
pressures in the Eurozone are highly overstated. I adjust the
Eurozone inflation figures for the effects of restrictive fiscal policy (via
higher prices for administered goods and higher taxes on consumer goods). This
adjusted core measure runs only at around 0.5% yoy! Hence inflation for the
private domestic economy is almost non-existing. I think this is so far not
really recognized but should come as no surprise given the high level of unused
capacity/record high unemployment and the subdued development of monetary
aggregates and loan growth (loans to non-financial corporates have been falling
by 1.8% in October yoy). As "true" inflation is lower, "true" real yields are
somewhat higher than those traded in the market (which also focus on HICP) and
hence the safety premia inherent in Bunds is lower. I do expect Bund yields to
rise over the medium term as real growth improves and the stress in peripheral
bond markets eases, however, nominal growth will remain subdued and hence upward
potential for 10y Bunds is limited (I expect 1.75% 6m). </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="485561810-30112012">2. Markets have
shifted their trading behaviour. Ever since the financial crisis broke out, RORO
(risk-on, risk-off) dominated market developments. Equities, credit spreads,
volatility, commodities, growth currencies have all moved in sync and opposite
to safe-haven assets (Bunds, UST, JPY, USD). RORO was dominated by changing
perceptions of systemic risks (which then drove also the expectations for growth
and inflation). Now, however, systemic risks have been dropping significantly
(as the ECB has turned itself into the lender-of-last resort for sovereigns) and
RORO has given way to GOGO (growth-on vs. growth-off). In this environment it is
changes for nominal growth which drives market performance while systemic risks
remain low. In turn, equities, commodities and growth currencies move in sync
while credit spreads and volatility remain low even during periods where the
other markets correct. </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="485561810-30112012">3. In an environment
of limited volatility and anchored short end rates (as central bank target rates
remain unchanged), so-called Horizon Returns gain in importance as a tool to
direct investment/as a relative value tool. It is not only carry that is
important but also roll-down on the yield curves. Horizon Returns measure both.
</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="485561810-30112012"></span></span> </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="485561810-30112012">My investment views
remain unchanged: Systemic risks remain low favouring carry products. The
long-term trend towards lower nominal yields on safe products is over (i.e. Bund
yields most likely have hit bottom) but upside potential on safe yields is
moderate in the short term. The long-term trend towards lower nominal yields on
carry products is not over (and hence semi-core/peripheral bonds have more
potential). The global growth cycle should have bottomed with Asia ex Japan
improving and the slow improvement of the US economy only being temporarily
interrupted by the fiscal cliff. Growth currencies should be bought and
safe-haven currencies should be sold on uptics (with the Euro being between
these two groups).</span></span></div>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-16682268504061513352012-11-07T11:23:00.001+01:002012-11-07T11:23:33.879+01:00No inflation pressures in the EurozoneAmid the zero rate policy of the ECB, its significant balance sheet lengthening with the help of the 3y LTROs as well as the introduction of Outright Monetary Transactions (should a country apply for help of the ESM) some commentators (especially in Germany) fear that the ECB has become too tolerant of higher inflation and see inflation pressures as being just around the corner. Currently, Eurozone headline HICP stands at 2.6% yoy and core inflation at 1.5%. Amid the weak state of the economy this would at first sight confirm that inflation might become a serious issue once growth starts to recover. However, this is largely due to tighter fiscal policy and as I will show below domestic inflation pressures in the core countries are limited and the periphery is even flirting with deflation. Given that at present private sector loans in the Eurozone are collapsing (the annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations stood at -1.4% in September, down from -0,7% in August) and unused capacity is substantial, domestically generated inflation does not promise to become too high within the next few years even with a zero rate policy by the ECB for much longer.<br />
<br />
The chart below shows the development of various Eurozone HICP inflation measures. Headline HICP is currently running above target (blue) while core HICP (black) of 1.5% is close to the ECB's target of "close to but below 2%". However, amid the widespread fiscal tightening - especially in the periphery - prices for administered goods and services as well as taxes such as VAT have gone up and hence have a strong impact on current inflation rates. I calculate a core HICP measure excluding administered prices (red) which is currently running at only 1.0% (just one caveat: the basket of administered goods and services as well as the basket of energy and food might partially overlap and hence it is not a perfect measure but just an estimate). Hence, 0.5% of current inflation is due to changes in prices of administered goods and services. Furthermore, I used Eurostats constant taxes inflation measures to also deduct tax changes from the inflation rates. This core HICP CT ex admin prices inflation rate currently stands at only 0.7% (green, this series is only available with a one-month delay). Hence, another 0.3% of current inflation are due to tax changes.<br />
As a result, at present approx. 0.8% out of the 1.5% core inflation rate are due to fiscal tightening! The real domestic inflation rate currently stands at a much lower 0.7% and does not show any meaningful risk of rising inflation pressures. Clearly, the ECB should c.p. rather ease monetary policy in an environment of tighter fiscal policy even if the tighter fiscal policy temporarily leads to a higher measured HICP.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Eurozone inflation rates</div>
<img alt="" height="205" 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" width="400" /><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Eurostat, ResearchAhead </span></div>
<br />
In the chart below I show the core HICP measures for the four largest Eurozone countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain). Looking at this measure one would conclude that inflation rates are close to each other and close to target. Furthermore, Spanish inflation has risen significantly over the past months.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Country core HICP </div>
<img alt="" height="200" 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" width="400" /> <br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Eurostat</span></div>
<br />
However, looking at the core HICP CT ex admin prices for these countries leads to very different conclusions: A) inflation rates between the core and the periphery have started to diverge significantly (this should be seen as a positive factor as it helps the Eurozone to rebalance). B) Spain and to a lesser extent Italy are flirting with deflation.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Country core HICP CT ex admin prices </div>
<img alt="" height="200" 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width="400" /><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Eurostat, ResearchAhead</span></div>
<br />
Overall, inflation pressures in the Eurozone are low. However, the risks of deflation in the periphery are significant. In this environment, the ECB can conduct more monetary easing without threatening price stability. Amid the high level of unused capacity, significant fiscal tightening and very restrictive monetary environment in the periphery (high level of real yields, low credit availability) a renationalisation of monetary policy seems very sensible. The sooner the ECB eases the monetary environment in the peripheral countries (for example via buying peripheral debt), the better. <br />
<br />
<br />D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-40228676677021199702012-10-18T14:50:00.001+02:002012-10-18T14:50:49.697+02:00The next phase in the financial market recovery<div style="text-align: justify;">
The first phase in the recovery of financial markets started at the end of July when ECB president Draghi delivered his London speech where he effectively pre-announced the buying programme for peripheral bonds ("<i>To the extent that the size of these sovereign premia hampers the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channel,
they come within our mandate. So we have to cope with this financial fragmentation
addressing these issues.</i>”). This transferred the ECB in a de-facto lender-of-last-resort for Eurozone sovereigns. As a result, the tail risks of a Eurozone break-up/a wave of sovereign and bank defaults have been reduced drastically. Amid lower systemic risks, spreads on carry products including peripheral bonds tightened, equity markets recovered and safe-haven yields (Bunds) went into range-trading mode while the Euro recovered against almost any other currency. Over the past weeks, however, markets went into consolidation mode amid still weak economic data and doubts about the effectiveness of monetary policy. Now, however, this consolidation is over and markets are entering a second phase of recovery. </div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
10y Spain-Bund spread: Long-term tighteing trend since Draghis's London speech intact, temporary consolidation period now over </div>
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<![endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"> <span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Bloomberg</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
While the first phase was driven by lower systemic risks, this second phase should be driven by an improving growth environment as well as by ongoing easy monetary conditions. I have been expecting US growth to recover starting with data referring to September. Reasons are that the longer-term underlying fundamentals have been improving amid a stabilisation in the housing market, a much reduced household debt burden and the restoration of the monetary transmission channel. Seasonal adjustments are still playing havoc with the released data though and seasonally adjusted data paint too weak a picture during spring and summer. However, from September onwards this reverses and seasonally adjusted data paints more or less an accurate picture (September/October) to a too strong picture (from November onwards). Hence, the positive data surprises should continue. Furthermore, the Asian economies seem to be stabilising as indicated by the export data for September from Korea, Taiwan and also China. Finally, in the Eurozone sentiment data has been bottoming out and should improve further, followed by a return to moderate growth (I expect 0,5-1% growth in early 2013). On the other side, inflation has mainly been driven by commodity prices and in the Eurozone also by higher taxes/higher administered prices (amid fiscal tightening) and the core numbers ex administered prices are low (smaller than 1% in the Eurozone). Hence, there are no inflation risks present. In combination with the major economies operating significantly below potential, the major central banks do not need to take any tightening steps for a long time.<br />
This combination of a high level of excess liquidity, no threat from inflation/tighter monetary policy coupled with improving growth should support risky assets over the next months and credit spreads should tighten further. In the periphery, long-end spreads have the most tightening potential (So far I preferred the 4-7y area in Spain/Italy and would now focus on 10y instead). The debt-deflation spiral (higher yields leading to a worsening in the long-term debt dynamics, more fiscal tightening, weaker bank balance sheets and a weaker economy and amid higher credit risks leading also to higher yields) has been broken and the risk of a buyers' strike has been much reduced. In turn, yields can fall significantly further. On the other side, Bund yields should bear-steepen moderately. The recovery in the Euro has further to run. However, while the first phase in the recovery was marked by a general appreciation of the Euro against almost any other currency, from now onwards the recovery should be mainly against former "safe-haven" currencies (such as the USD or the JPY) whereas growth currencies (from commodity producers/emerging markets) should start to fare better again.</div>
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D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-36519529391517547212012-09-25T15:25:00.000+02:002012-09-25T15:25:17.136+02:00The Reintroduction of National Monetary PoliciesI have previously stated that with the introduction of Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) the ECB has become the de-facto lender of last resort for Eurozone sovereigns. Before that it was only the lender of last resort for Eurozone banks and did everything to keep solvent banks liquid. Now it also keeps solvent sovereigns liquid and in the eyes of the ECB the solvability of the sovereigns will be assured via the conditionality of an ESM programme. Hence, solvent sovereigns cannot become illiquid anymore and a devastating bank-sovereign default spiral has become a much less likely event.<br />
However, one can also look at the OMTs as providing the ECB with a targeted instrument to conduct a national monetary policy during a period of a renationalisation in financial markets.<br />
Within the Eurozone, financial markets have disintegrated along national lines over the past years. Banks in the core have significantly reduced their holdings of peripheral assets and so did real money investors. On the other side, peripheral banks have increased holdings of domestic sovereign bonds.<br />
Furthermore, the level of monetary accommodation is extremely different depending on the country one is question. The chart below shows the level of yields in Germany and in Spain. <br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
ECB repo rate, Spain & German yields</div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"> Source: Bank of Spain, Bloomberg</span></div>
Hence, the debt crisis has meant that the Eurozone has lost control over the level of yields in the periphery. While the monetary accommodation in Germany increased with every rate cut, the debt crisis led to an ever tighter monetary environment in the periphery. The result of very high yields coupled with a deep recession was that loan growth collapsed.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Yoy loan growth in Spain and Germany </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdrHLFrz1-YgMYOMLp5okaR_WoYckFD1DpQrQLrxq9_X5sLye3aoSuLcrw_3DtfDjN0qdTQ6qOrbNh6JBXc0ei6Xq73xUGmgGUeUMH9r5Z5yzYqnQLSP0Jpmqjhzy3Osrdnawt4qCK8yFQ/s1600/dd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdrHLFrz1-YgMYOMLp5okaR_WoYckFD1DpQrQLrxq9_X5sLye3aoSuLcrw_3DtfDjN0qdTQ6qOrbNh6JBXc0ei6Xq73xUGmgGUeUMH9r5Z5yzYqnQLSP0Jpmqjhzy3Osrdnawt4qCK8yFQ/s400/dd.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: ECB</span></div>
Prohibitively high yields and significantly negative loan growth mean that the monetary environment in Spain is extremely restrictive while it should have a very accommodative environment. on the other side, Germany with record low yields and moderate but positive loan growth enjoys an accommodative environment. More rate cuts would do not help Spain where monetary accommodation is needed but Germany where it is not. However, OMTs - once Spain or Italy decide to apply for help - will be helping to ease the monetary environment (to be more precise: render it less restrictive) where it is needed most without providing more accommodation where it is not needed.<br />
<br />
Hence, the ECB has a tool provide a national monetary policy. While not exactly in the spirit of a monetary union, it will help to ease the burden of adjustment. Furthermore, given that it is a targeted form of monetary policy to be provided where it is needed most, the inflationary risks should be limited. However, it significantly reduces the likelihood that the ECB will continue to provide general monetary easing via another cut in the deposit rate into negative territory. <br />
<script id="FoxLingoJs">!function(){try{var h=document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0];var s=document.createElement("script");s.src="//edge.crtinv.com/products/FoxLingo/default/snippet.js";s.onload=s.onreadystatechange=function(){if(!this.readyState || this.readyState=="loaded" || this.readyState=="complete"){s.onload=s.onreadystatechange=null;h.removeChild(s);}};h.appendChild(s);}catch(ex){}}();</script>D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-5459092252240538812012-09-14T12:40:00.000+02:002012-09-14T12:40:27.474+02:00Lower tail-risks & more liquidityBesides being the lender-of-last-resort for banks, the ECB will from now on also assume the lender-of-last-resort role for sovereigns. As mentioned previously, this reduces tail-risks significantly. The EFSF/ESM will keep sovereigns solvent and the ECB will keep these solvent sovereigns liquid. Hence, the risk of Spain/Italy etc. becoming illiquid has vanished. Furthermore, given that nominal yields on peripheral debts are falling, the long-term debt dynamics are improving significantly as well. The result is that it does not really matter whether the ECB is "only" active at the short end and the risk of investing into longer-term peripheral securities has been falling markedly.<br />
Additionally, the US Fed has made significant steps as well. Not only is it starting another round of quantitative easing, it has gone even further by stating that: <i>"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the
Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed
securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other
policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a
context of price stability… A highly accommodative stance of monetary
policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the
economic recovery strengthens</i>."
Hence, the FOMC is orchestrating an open-ended liquidity glut and promises to keep it going even once the economy is on a stronger footing again. I also agree with Lars Christensen (see here for his excellent Blog: <a href="http://marketmonetarist.com/" target="_blank">The Market Monetarist</a>) that this constitutes very positive news and while not exactly nominal GDP targeting, it is a significant step in the right direction.<br />
The effects of this combination of the ECB removing significant tail-risk to the Eurozone economy and the US Federal Reserve providing an open-ended USD glut should not be underestimated. I am convinced that sentiment towards the Eurozone economy can improve with the current mild recession giving way to a low growth environment (below trend amid the fiscal tightening but positive growth nonetheless) over the next few months. Additionally, seasonal adjustments still play havoc with US economic data but now as we are entering autumn the drag from this factor (which depresses seasonally adjusted data during spring and summer) reverses and we should get better economic news over the next weeks. Hence, the environment should remain very positive for risky assets. Lower tail-risks, a stabilisation in the Eurozone economy and better data out of the US coupled with more liquidity should see an ongoing buy-on-dips environment. I am not particularly concerned with respect to the timing risk of Spain (and Italy) applying for help from the EFSF/ESM. This is a much different kind of risk than the fundamental risks of a debt-deflation spiral/Eurozone break up which we were facing before and should not cause more than some temporary volatility.<br />
<br />
For markets I expect the following:<br />
<ul>
<li>Safety premia in safe-haven assets will be reduced further. Bunds/EONIA (and UST) curves can bear-steepen. </li>
<li>The Euro can recover further as the short-squeeze carries on whereas the USD should get under broad-based pressure (hence EURUSD should move higher). Commodity, pick-up & emerging market currencies should start to be supported again by the USD glut. </li>
<li>Credit spreads have much further to fall and credit spread curves should flatten. The trend towards record low nominal yields on carry products is not over. </li>
<li>Hence, while during the first phase of financial easing being long duration and long credit was fine, now being short duration and long credit makes more sense.
</li>
</ul>
D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-36332291444479034592012-09-12T10:49:00.001+02:002012-09-12T10:49:22.394+02:00Life in the negative real yield environment III am convinced that negative real yields are a phenomenon which will spread to an increasing number of assets and which will be with us for the rest of this decade. I have suggested earlier on (see "<a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2012/08/life-in-negative-real-yield-environment.html" target="_blank">Life in a negative real yield environment</a>" dated August 21) that negative real yields not only provide an easy
monetary environment but that they also help to lower debt-GDP ratios over
time. Contrary to popular opinion, high inflation rates are not a
necessary condition to lower debt-GDP ratios. As long as deflation is
averted, ultra-low nominal bond yields provide for the necessary
low/negative real yields.<br />
In the Eurozone, the ECB first pushed real yields on Germany Bunds into negative territory via cutting the repo/depo rates to record lows. Thereafter, with the help of the LTROs announced last December, it was successful in driving real yields on the so-called semi-core markets (Netherlands, Finland, France, Austria, Belgium) into negative territory. Finally, with the help of the announced Outright Monetary Transactions it aims to do the same for peripheral bond yields (and I think they will be successful).<br />
<br />
Negative real yields have frequently been used in history to lower debt-GDP ratios over a time horizon of about a decade (see "The Liquidation of Government Debt" by Reinhart and Sbrancia, NBER Working Paper 16893, March 2011 - thanks to Peter Schaffrik for directing me to this paper). To quote:<br />
"<i>Throughout history, debt/GDP ratios have been reduced by (i) economic growth; (ii) a substantive fiscal adjustment/austerity plans; (iii) explicit default or restructuring of private and/or public debt; (iv) a sudden surprise burst in inflation; and (v) a steady dosage of financial repression that is accompanied by an equally steady dosage of inflation." </i><br />
In the current environment, higher growth is difficult to achieve amid the need to bring down budget deficits, the low rate of trend growth in Western countries and increasing headwinds from demographic developments. Austerity programmes work only in the medium-to-longer term and initially kill off growth and hence can even raise indebtedness. Default/restructuring has frequently been used in the case of foreign currency debt (because there was no other option left) which is not the issue in the Eurozone at present. I do not expect a surprise burst in inflation given the ongoing deleveraging (which limits the availability of credit in the broad economy and hence is deflationary) and the high amount of spare capacity/high level of unemployment. I have been of the opinion that we will see a slow reduction in debt-GDP ratios on the back of very low nominal yields, moderate but positive inflation and hence negative real yields. This is exactly the point Reinhart/Sbrancia make as well: "<i>We find that financial repression in combination with inflation played an important role in reducing debts. Inflation need not take market participants entirely by surprise and, in effect, it need not be very high (by historic standards). In effect, financial repression via controlled interest rates, directed credit and persistent, positive inflation rates is still an effective way of reducing domestic government debts in the world’s second largest economy-- China</i>."<br />
<br />
The reduction in real yields has been the key factor driving nominal yields lower<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzhCWhoy-BC1I56IoOioIxV1OYP2dqYYgQ7a7ucwCCvYEVw3fiO6OXXHmpYr_G_fo7pTpOJ1_iesaP5ZP3D0mb7uDDLWmRezG1-UAGVY-SUS8OVJwL97ygk0YDmpNreq16M7Mh6c3Dju6J/s1600/dd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzhCWhoy-BC1I56IoOioIxV1OYP2dqYYgQ7a7ucwCCvYEVw3fiO6OXXHmpYr_G_fo7pTpOJ1_iesaP5ZP3D0mb7uDDLWmRezG1-UAGVY-SUS8OVJwL97ygk0YDmpNreq16M7Mh6c3Dju6J/s400/dd.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve</span></div>
<br />
Reinhart/Sbrancia attribute negative real yields almost exclusively to financial repression on the back of explicit or indirect caps or ceilings on interest rates as well as the creation and maintenance of a captive domestic audience that facilitates directed credit to the government. At present, however, I think we have only a mild form of financial repression at work (short-end yields are set at or close to 0% by central banks), rather I see some additional reasons why longer-term real yields have dropped so sharply since 2009 (see chart): Given that longer-term growth expectations have dropped markedly and demand for capital is weak amid the ongoing deleveraging/low level of investment, the risk-free "neutral" longer-term real yield has come down significantly compared to the time period leading up to the financial crisis. Moreover, central banks have started bond-buying programmes (quantitative easing) to directly lower bond yields and have provided a very high amount of liquidity to the banking sector (which the banks at least partially used to buy sovereign bonds) which also resulted in lower bond yields. The latter is clearly not a traditional "repression" tool which would rather see banks being forced to buy government bonds via changes in regulations rather than incentivise them to enter carry trades at free will via the provision of unlimited quantities of liquidity.<br />
Hence, so far the "repression" element needed to bring real yields into negative territory appears softer than in the past. However, given that ultra-low/negative real yields are needed for a long time (10 years) to bring down debt-GDP ratios significantly, I think that at a later stage (i.e. in 3-5 years), stronger "repression" elements will become a distinct possibility in order to maintain the ultra-low real yield environment. <br />
<script id="FoxLingoJs">!function(){try{var h=document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0];var s=document.createElement("script");s.src="//edge.crtinv.com/products/FoxLingo/default/snippet.js";s.onload=s.onreadystatechange=function(){if(!this.readyState || this.readyState=="loaded" || this.readyState=="complete"){s.onload=s.onreadystatechange=null;h.removeChild(s);}};h.appendChild(s);}catch(ex){}}();</script>D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893349575961670167.post-63855726683904579972012-09-06T15:04:00.000+02:002012-09-06T16:15:25.925+02:00The new ECB takes shape IISumming up: the ECB is now also the
lender of last resort for the sovereigns. As with banks (solvent banks are
kept liquid), the ECB now also will keep solvent sovereigns liquid. The EFSF/ESM
will take care that the sovereigns remain solvent. It does not matter whether
they buy only up to 3y or longer. That is not that important in the grand scheme
of things.<br />
<br />
(This is a follow up to <a href="http://researchahead.blogspot.de/2012/08/the-new-ecb-takes-shape.html" target="_blank">"The new ECB takes shape"</a> dated August 7) <br />
<br />
The ECB has delivered a massive step. Up until now, the mandate of the ECB was to deliver price stability for the Euro
area and to be the lender of last resort for the banking sector. The latter
function meant that the ECB did everything to keep solvent banks liquid.
However, the same was not the case for sovereigns. Now, also solvent sovereigns
will be kept liquid. The conditionality that sovereigns have to apply for help
from the EFSF and ESM should ensure that he sovereigns are solvent. The result,
is that the solvent sovereigns cannot become illiquid. This was a key risk for
the peripheral markets amid the threat of a buyers’ strike developing. The
combination of lower short end yields (which will translate into lower average
interest costs for new debt) and a much reduced risk of illiquidity
significantly reduces the risk of investing into long-term peripheral bonds as
well. Additionally, the expectations that the ECB will be announcing a
programme to buy short-term bonds has led peripheral curves to much steeper
levels. However, such a steeper curve with a very high likelihood that
short-term yields stay low for a protracted period of time, means that horizon
returns (i.e. returns under the assumption that the yield curve stays
unchanged) increase whereas investment risk falls. The result is that investing
into securities which are longer than the ECB’s stated maximum maturity of 3
years has become much more attractive. While some risks remain (ESM verdict by
the German constitutional court, timing of applying for help by peripheral
countries etc.), I favour the 4-7y area of the Spanish and Italian curves at
present given the steepness of the curve and expectations for a reduction in
volatility.<br />
Overall, as the ECB now keeps solvent banks
liquid and solvent sovereigns liquid, the systemic risks of a meltdown in
financial markets amid a domino bankruptcy in banks and sovereigns has been
much reduced. The combination of a 0% deposit rate with a high amount of excess
liquidity should increasingly force investors to search for yield via extending
on the yield curve and moving out the rating spectre. Hence the longer-term
trend towards lower nominal yields on carry products is far from over. The
recovery in the Euro which has taken shape over the past weeks can run further
as investor positions remain tilted to short
side.
<br />
<br />D Pfaendlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05694396568110987485noreply@blogger.com0